2001 · Week 5 · Division
Final
Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 65°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
37
Model margin
+0.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play-0.125
- 38.9%Success rate36.1%
- -0.101EPA / dropback-0.132
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- 34.9%Third-down rate32.7%
- 43.9%Red-zone TD rate32.6%
- 1.18Points / drive0.93
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.069EPA / play allowed-0.034
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 10/18 | 132 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 23 | 99 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Gardner | 3 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 1 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 15/28 | 177 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 25 | 107 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 9 | 68 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.71
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.26