2023 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

38·10

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

DAL -13

Total

47.5

Model margin

-4.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • +0.121EPA / play-0.084
  • 48.0%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.229EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.119
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +3.68CPOE+0.32
  • 49.6%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.67Points / drive1.53
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS
2022 · W4WAS @ DAL10–25DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
WASQ1 15:00942Turnover on downs0–0
DALQ1 10:13867Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 6:2615Turnover7–0
DALQ1 6:19717Missed field goal7–0
WASQ1 3:21720Touchdown7–7
DALQ2 14:57736Turnover7–7
WASQ2 11:30847Field goal7–10
DALQ2 7:04756Touchdown14–10
WASQ2 4:12828Turnover14–10
DALQ2 1:40665Touchdown21–10
WASQ2 0:2300End of half21–10
DALQ3 15:001275Touchdown28–10
WASQ3 8:283-2Punt28–10
DALQ3 6:00529Touchdown35–10
WASQ3 4:06527Turnover35–10
DALQ3 1:001359Missed field goal35–10
WASQ4 8:575-4Punt35–10
DALQ4 5:11736Field goal38–10
WASQ4 1:06218End of half38–10

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott31/3627941
Cooper Rush3/43000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard17704.11
Rico Dowdle9465.10
CeeDee Lamb177.00
KaVontae Turpin155.00
Brandin Cooks133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb1313982
Jake Ferguson66690
Rico Dowdle34540
Brandin Cooks68391
Peyton Hendershot11240
Tony Pollard22160
Jalen Tolbert2381
Jalen Brooks1110
Michael Gallup0200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Howell19/2715312
Dyami Brown1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson9252.80
Curtis Samuel11515.00
Antonio Gibson284.00
Derrick Gore133.00
Sam Howell4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin68560
Antonio Gibson34280
Jahan Dotson23170
Curtis Samuel24150
Alex Armah11100
Brian Robinson33101
Logan Thomas1290
Jamison Crowder1180
Sam Howell1140
John Bates0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -133.0%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.6%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-4.74