2023 · Week 18 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
DAL -13
Total
47.5
Model margin
-4.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.121EPA / play-0.084
- 48.0%Success rate41.9%
- +0.229EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.119
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- +3.68CPOE+0.32
- 49.6%Third-down rate35.6%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.67Points / drive1.53
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 31/36 | 279 | 4 | 1 |
| Cooper Rush | 3/4 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 17 | 70 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 13 | 13 | 98 | 2 |
| Jake Ferguson | 6 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 8 | 39 | 1 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 19/27 | 153 | 1 | 2 |
| Dyami Brown | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Gore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 3 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-4.74