2022 · Week 18 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
DAL -7.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play-0.066
- 45.2%Success rate40.9%
- +0.082EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.092
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.95CPOE-1.41
- 46.2%Third-down rate34.9%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.26Points / drive1.48
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 14/37 | 128 | 1 | 1 |
| Cooper Rush | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Malik Davis | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 11/19 | 169 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaret Patterson | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Williams | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Reggie Bonnafon | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Armani Rogers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 6 | 74 | 1 |
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 4 | 72 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.28
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.63