2022 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

6·26

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DAL -7.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • +0.031EPA / play-0.066
  • 45.2%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.092
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -1.95CPOE-1.41
  • 46.2%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.48
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W4WAS @ DAL10–25DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
DALQ1 15:00723Turnover on downs0–0
WASQ1 11:45220Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 11:083-7Punt0–7
WASQ1 9:3736Punt0–7
WASQ1 8:4232Missed field goal0–7
DALQ1 6:3536Punt0–7
WASQ1 4:451333Turnover0–7
DALQ2 13:2734Opp touchdown0–13
DALQ2 12:3835Punt0–13
WASQ2 11:17748Missed field goal0–13
DALQ2 7:3233Punt0–13
WASQ2 6:45621Punt0–13
DALQ2 2:371477Touchdown6–13
WASQ2 0:0600End of half6–13
WASQ3 15:0037Punt6–13
DALQ3 12:49413Punt6–13
WASQ3 11:0734Punt6–13
DALQ3 9:4031Punt6–13
WASQ3 8:4338Punt6–13
DALQ3 6:303-2Punt6–13
WASQ3 5:34764Touchdown6–20
DALQ3 1:4930Punt6–20
WASQ3 0:44456Field goal6–23
DALQ4 14:191040Turnover on downs6–23
WASQ4 10:4337Punt6–23
DALQ4 9:1230Punt6–23
WASQ4 8:49526Field goal6–26
DALQ4 5:1936Punt6–26
WASQ4 4:0738Punt6–26
DALQ4 1:53313End of half6–26

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott14/3712811
Cooper Rush0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard7192.70
Malik Davis5193.80
Dak Prescott6162.70
Ezekiel Elliott8101.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb57521
Dalton Schultz49330
T.Y. Hilton24190
Noah Brown16100
Michael Gallup16100
Jake Ferguson1140
Ezekiel Elliott0200
Tony Pollard0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Howell11/1916911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaret Patterson17784.60
Sam Howell5357.01
Jonathan Williams14322.30
Reggie Bonnafon382.70
Armani Rogers122.00
Curtis Samuel1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin36741
Jahan Dotson34720
Logan Thomas23160
Jonathan Williams2290
Cam Sims0100
Jaret Patterson0100
Curtis Samuel11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.28
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.63