2026 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

20·37

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.005EPA / play+0.120
  • 41.2%Success rate47.6%
  • +0.061EPA / dropback+0.201
  • -0.123EPA / rush-0.034
  • 7.5%Explosive rate6.1%
  • +2.73CPOE+0.48
  • 32.2%Third-down rate47.2%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate73.2%
  • 1.92Points / drive2.88
  • 0.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS
2022 · W4WAS @ DAL10–25DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
DALQ1 15:001066Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 10:0137Punt0–7
DALQ1 8:05853Field goal0–10
WASQ1 5:011395Field goal3–10
DALQ2 13:14756Touchdown3–17
WASQ2 9:55859Touchdown10–17
DALQ2 6:373-4Punt10–17
WASQ2 5:011564End of half10–17
WASQ3 15:00531Field goal13–17
DALQ3 12:50838Field goal13–20
WASQ3 7:201-6Turnover13–20
DALQ3 7:08213Touchdown13–27
WASQ3 6:321142Missed field goal13–27
DALQ3 1:53617Field goal13–30
WASQ4 13:221073Touchdown20–30
DALQ4 9:031193Touchdown20–37
WASQ4 3:07524End of half20–37

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota11/1611110
Jayden Daniels11/179610
Dyami Brown1/1000
Antonio Williams0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jayden Daniels7699.90
Rachaad White7436.10
Jacory Croskey-Merritt12433.60
Kaytron Allen5244.80
Marcus Mariota133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin29500
Stefon Diggs56472
Rachaad White66400
Antonio Williams33240
Dyami Brown46210
Colson Yankoff11140
Ben Sinnott1160
Jacory Croskey-Merritt1150
Treylon Burks0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott26/3127940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams12302.50
Dak Prescott4266.50
Emari Demercado382.70
KaVontae Turpin111.00
Hunter Luepke111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb891532
Jake Ferguson44432
George Pickens68400
Ryan Flournoy56230
Javonte Williams34200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.64