2026 · Week 2 · Division
Scheduled
AT&T Stadium · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -4.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.073EPA / play+0.271
- 43.5%Success rate48.3%
- +0.160EPA / dropback+0.425
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.100
- 4.3%Explosive rate0.0%
- -3.44CPOE+7.73
- 33.3%Third-down rate72.7%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.99Points / drive2.98
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
54.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.72
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.50