2023 · Week 12 · Division
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -13
Total
48
Model margin
+8.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play+0.121
- 41.9%Success rate48.0%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.229
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.061
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.9%
- +0.32CPOE+3.68
- 35.6%Third-down rate49.6%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.53Points / drive2.67
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 28/44 | 300 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 9 | 12 | 100 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 11 | 50 | 0 |
| Cole Turner | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/32 | 331 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 13 | 79 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 5 | 72 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 9 | 53 | 1 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 2 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 34 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.0%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.07