2023 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

10·45

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -13

Total

48

Model margin

+8.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.084EPA / play+0.121
  • 41.9%Success rate48.0%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.229
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.061
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +0.32CPOE+3.68
  • 35.6%Third-down rate49.6%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.53Points / drive2.67
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS
2022 · W4WAS @ DAL10–25DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
WASQ1 15:00631Punt0–0
DALQ1 11:33518Punt0–0
WASQ1 9:59839Punt0–0
DALQ1 5:5312109Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 0:46850Field goal3–7
DALQ2 11:27675Touchdown3–14
WASQ2 8:271567Touchdown10–14
DALQ2 1:51570Touchdown10–20
WASQ2 0:26418End of half10–20
DALQ3 15:00417Punt10–20
WASQ3 13:02951Turnover on downs10–20
DALQ3 8:133-1Punt10–20
WASQ3 6:43616Punt10–20
DALQ3 2:531054Field goal10–23
WASQ4 13:364-1Turnover on downs10–23
DALQ4 11:56324Touchdown10–31
WASQ4 10:32640Turnover on downs10–31
DALQ4 8:50565Touchdown10–38
WASQ4 5:59532Opp touchdown10–45
WASQ4 4:39733End of half10–45

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Howell28/4430001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson15533.50
Antonio Gibson6213.50
Chris Rodriguez Jr.4215.30
Sam Howell2136.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Curtis Samuel9121000
Jahan Dotson56520
Terry McLaurin411500
Cole Turner11290
Byron Pringle22270
Antonio Gibson34160
Logan Thomas24150
Brian Robinson23110
Dyami Brown0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott22/3233140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard13796.11
Rico Dowdle3113.70
Dak Prescott11010.00
CeeDee Lamb100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks45721
CeeDee Lamb49531
Jalen Tolbert23490
Jake Ferguson13350
KaVontae Turpin11341
Tony Pollard66240
Jalen Brooks11240
Rico Dowdle11151
Michael Gallup11130
Luke Schoonmaker12120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.0%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.07