2025 · Week 17 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
DAL -8.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.035
- 47.2%Success rate46.4%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.89CPOE+0.67
- 41.3%Third-down rate37.2%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.53Points / drive2.03
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 19/37 | 307 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Davis | 20 | 103 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Hunter Luepke | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 86 | 1 |
| George Pickens | 4 | 5 | 78 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 4 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 15/23 | 198 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 11 | 105 | 9.5 | 2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Ben Sinnott | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.69
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.28