2025 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

30·23

Commanders

Washington

QB Josh Johnson

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DAL -8.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • +0.109EPA / play+0.035
  • 47.2%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.039
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +1.89CPOE+0.67
  • 41.3%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.53Points / drive2.03
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS
2022 · W4WAS @ DAL10–25DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
DALQ1 15:001469Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 9:42765Field goal7–3
DALQ1 4:441968Touchdown14–3
WASQ2 12:06633Punt14–3
DALQ2 9:09597Touchdown21–3
WASQ2 7:00741Touchdown21–10
DALQ2 4:351156Field goal24–10
WASQ2 0:1917End of half24–10
WASQ3 15:00414Punt24–10
DALQ3 12:48717Punt24–16
WASQ3 9:44172Touchdown24–17
DALQ3 9:341043Field goal27–17
WASQ3 4:42950Field goal27–20
DALQ3 0:16536Missed field goal27–20
WASQ4 13:3137Punt27–20
DALQ4 11:321452Field goal30–20
WASQ4 3:59539Field goal30–23
DALQ4 2:09742End of half30–23

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott19/3730720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Malik Davis201035.20
Javonte Williams13544.21
Hunter Luepke7304.30
Dak Prescott4246.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
KaVontae Turpin11861
George Pickens45780
CeeDee Lamb510460
Jalen Tolbert48310
Brevyn Spann-Ford12310
Luke Schoonmaker22150
Hunter Luepke11140
Jake Ferguson1261
Javonte Williams0200
Malik Davis0200
Jonathan Mingo0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Johnson15/2319800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt111059.52
Deebo Samuel Sr.22512.50
Josh Johnson2105.00
Jeremy McNichols1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.24680
Terry McLaurin57630
Ben Sinnott34290
Chris Moore11150
Jeremy McNichols33120
Treylon Burks12110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -8.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.69
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.28