2025 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

22·44

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -1.5

Total

54.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.109
  • 46.4%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.007
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +0.67CPOE+1.89
  • 37.2%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
  • 2.03Points / drive2.53
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS
2022 · W4WAS @ DAL10–25DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
DALQ1 15:00629Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 13:0537Punt2–7
DALQ1 11:351-1Safety2–7
WASQ1 11:23765Touchdown8–7
DALQ1 7:38431Field goal8–10
WASQ1 6:1439Punt8–16
DALQ1 4:38174Touchdown8–17
WASQ1 4:27619Punt8–17
DALQ1 2:06721Punt8–17
WASQ2 14:10744Turnover on downs8–17
DALQ2 10:56833Field goal8–20
WASQ2 7:22313Punt8–20
DALQ2 5:29611Punt8–20
WASQ2 1:56858Touchdown15–20
DALQ2 0:45472Touchdown15–27
WASQ2 0:1000End of half15–27
WASQ3 15:00722Turnover15–27
DALQ3 11:47955Touchdown15–34
WASQ3 7:44427Opp touchdown15–41
WASQ3 5:31844Touchdown22–41
DALQ3 2:35938Field goal22–44
WASQ4 12:45636Turnover on downs22–44
DALQ4 10:26525Punt22–44
WASQ4 6:503-2Punt22–44
DALQ4 4:32522End of half22–44

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels12/2215610
Marcus Mariota4/106301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jayden Daniels8354.41
Marcus Mariota23417.00
Jacory Croskey-Merritt13332.50
Jeremy McNichols22211.00
Chris Rodriguez Jr.3124.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylin Lane36600
Chris Moore25590
Zach Ertz37371
Robbie Chosen44360
Jeremy McNichols23230
John Bates1250
Luke McCaffrey0200
Jacory Croskey-Merritt12-10

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott21/3026430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams191166.11
Jaydon Blue7294.10
Dak Prescott571.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb581101
George Pickens46820
Jake Ferguson77292
KaVontae Turpin11170
Jalen Tolbert12160
Jaydon Blue1150
Hunter Luepke1130
Javonte Williams1420

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.33
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.32