2025 · Week 7 · Division
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.109
- 46.4%Success rate47.2%
- +0.084EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.007
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.67CPOE+1.89
- 37.2%Third-down rate41.3%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 2.03Points / drive2.53
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 12/22 | 156 | 1 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 4/10 | 63 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylin Lane | 3 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 21/30 | 264 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 19 | 116 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Jaydon Blue | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 8 | 110 | 1 |
| George Pickens | 4 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 7 | 7 | 29 | 2 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jaydon Blue | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.33
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.32