2024 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Cooper Rush

34·26

Commanders

Washington

QB Marcus Mariota

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

WAS -10.5

Total

45

Model margin

+5.0est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.138
  • 41.4%Success rate48.1%
  • -0.067EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.128EPA / rush+0.027
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -4.87CPOE+4.57
  • 37.1%Third-down rate45.9%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
  • 1.68Points / drive2.78
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS
2022 · W4WAS @ DAL10–25DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
DALQ1 15:00643Missed field goal0–0
WASQ1 11:25617Field goal0–3
DALQ1 9:01944Missed field goal0–3
WASQ1 3:39636Missed field goal0–3
DALQ1 0:4516Turnover0–3
WASQ1 0:3133Punt0–3
DALQ2 14:46821Punt0–3
WASQ2 10:55517Punt0–3
DALQ2 8:1439Punt0–3
WASQ2 6:19311Turnover0–3
DALQ2 5:0132Punt0–3
WASQ2 2:33729Punt0–3
DALQ2 0:45350Field goal3–3
WASQ2 0:0300End of half3–3
WASQ3 15:001170Touchdown3–9
DALQ3 9:53956Touchdown10–9
WASQ3 4:4033Punt10–9
DALQ3 3:4848Punt10–9
WASQ3 1:5233Punt10–9
DALQ3 0:19620Punt10–9
WASQ4 12:4336Punt10–9
DALQ4 11:17625Field goal13–9
WASQ4 8:11113Turnover13–9
DALQ4 8:03549Touchdown20–9
WASQ4 5:16969Touchdown26–17
DALQ4 3:0200Touchdown27–17
WASQ4 2:49543Field goal27–20
DALQ4 1:403-1Punt27–26
WASQ4 0:33186Touchdown33–26
DALQ4 0:2100Touchdown34–26
WASQ4 0:1426Turnover34–26

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush24/3224720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle19864.50
Ezekiel Elliott362.00
Cooper Rush410.30
CeeDee Lamb111.00
Trey Lance1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb1012670
Luke Schoonmaker34551
Jalen Brooks13410
Brevyn Spann-Ford22240
Jalen Tolbert24221
Rico Dowdle33120
Hunter Luepke11100
KaVontae Turpin1180
Jonathan Mingo1280

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels25/3827522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jayden Daniels77410.61
Austin Ekeler9222.40
Jeremy McNichols3227.30
Dyami Brown11414.00
Brian Robinson5132.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin561021
Noah Brown610710
Zach Ertz68381
Dyami Brown22220
John Bates11130
Brian Robinson12110
Olamide Zaccheaus1180
Luke McCaffrey1180
Austin Ekeler2320

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.56%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.3%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.05
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+4.97