2024 · Week 12 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
WAS -10.5
Total
45
Model margin
+5.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.138
- 41.4%Success rate48.1%
- -0.067EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.128EPA / rush+0.027
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- -4.87CPOE+4.57
- 37.1%Third-down rate45.9%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 1.68Points / drive2.78
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 24/32 | 247 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 19 | 86 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Trey Lance | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 10 | 12 | 67 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 3 | 4 | 55 | 1 |
| Jalen Brooks | 1 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 2 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Rico Dowdle | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 25/38 | 275 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 7 | 74 | 10.6 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 6 | 102 | 1 |
| Noah Brown | 6 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 8 | 38 | 1 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.90
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.05
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+4.97