2024 · Week 18 · Division
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
WAS -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.138EPA / play-0.089
- 48.1%Success rate41.4%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.067
- +0.027EPA / rush-0.128
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- +4.57CPOE-4.87
- 45.9%Third-down rate37.1%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
- 2.78Points / drive1.68
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 15/18 | 161 | 2 | 0 |
| Jayden Daniels | 6/12 | 38 | 0 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 5 | 56 | 11.2 | 1 |
| Jayden Daniels | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 8 | 12 | 62 | 1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Lance | 20/34 | 244 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 22 | 72 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Deuce Vaughn | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Trey Lance | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Tolbert | 4 | 6 | 98 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 9 | 15 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.90
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.50