2024 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

23·19

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Trey Lance

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

WAS -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.138EPA / play-0.089
  • 48.1%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback-0.067
  • +0.027EPA / rush-0.128
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +4.57CPOE-4.87
  • 45.9%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate51.7%
  • 2.78Points / drive1.68
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS
2022 · W4WAS @ DAL10–25DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
WASQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:48884Field goal0–3
WASQ1 8:20717Punt0–3
DALQ1 4:59312Punt0–3
WASQ1 3:2535Punt0–3
DALQ1 2:33619Punt0–3
DALQ2 14:453-1Field goal0–6
WASQ2 12:41411Punt0–6
DALQ2 10:2858Punt0–6
WASQ2 7:39834Field goal3–6
DALQ2 4:401568Turnover on downs3–6
WASQ2 0:1700End of half3–6
DALQ3 15:001153Field goal3–9
WASQ3 8:52870Touchdown10–9
DALQ3 5:071476Field goal10–12
WASQ4 13:53870Touchdown16–12
DALQ4 11:181050Touchdown16–19
WASQ4 7:023-16Punt16–19
DALQ4 5:3439Punt16–19
WASQ4 3:181181Touchdown23–19
DALQ4 0:0300End of half23–19

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota15/1816120
Jayden Daniels6/123800
Dyami Brown0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Mariota55611.21
Jayden Daniels4276.80
Austin Ekeler3124.00
Brian Robinson5102.00
Dyami Brown188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin812621
Olamide Zaccheaus25510
Zach Ertz55441
Austin Ekeler22200
Dyami Brown34160
Brian Robinson1160
John Bates0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trey Lance20/3424400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle22723.31
Deuce Vaughn6376.20
Trey Lance6264.30
Hunter Luepke3155.00
KaVontae Turpin155.00
Brandin Cooks1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Tolbert46980
KaVontae Turpin35530
Jonathan Mingo22240
Luke Schoonmaker22160
Brandin Cooks39150
Ryan Flournoy22140
Rico Dowdle23120
Jake Ferguson24120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.7%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.69
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.50