Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
33
Model margin
-0.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.113
- 39.6%Success rate36.9%
- -0.029EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.148
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.1%
- 36.2%Third-down rate31.3%
- 45.6%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.28Points / drive1.05
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.096
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 16/20 | 142 | 0 | 2 |
| Randall Cunningham | 11/25 | 120 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jason Brookins | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 7 | 10 | 85 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 5 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 6 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Jason Brookins | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 5 | 8 | 20 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 11/18 | 149 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jackson | 24 | 77 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Tim Couch | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 3 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Quincy Morgan | 1 | 1 | 36 | 1 |
| O.J. Santiago | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.51