2001 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Elvis Grbac

14·24

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

33

Model margin

-0.5est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.113
  • 39.6%Success rate36.9%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.148
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.1%
  • 36.2%Third-down rate31.3%
  • 45.6%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.05
  • 3.0%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.096

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00651Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 11:27617Punt0–7
CLEQ1 7:57642Punt0–7
BALQ1 4:21528Turnover0–7
CLEQ1 1:443-6Punt0–7
BALQ1 0:23423Punt0–7
CLEQ2 13:3430Punt0–7
BALQ2 13:021267Field goal3–7
CLEQ2 5:114-2Punt3–7
BALQ2 2:5123Turnover3–7
CLEQ2 2:0934Field goal3–10
BALQ2 1:45860Field goal6–10
CLEQ2 0:051-2End of half6–10
BALQ3 15:0053Punt6–10
CLEQ3 12:151170Touchdown6–17
BALQ3 7:1648Turnover6–23
CLEQ3 5:28136Touchdown6–24
BALQ3 5:201032Punt6–24
CLEQ3 0:1639Punt6–24
BALQ4 13:41611Punt6–24
CLEQ4 11:07511Punt6–24
BALQ4 7:30422Touchdown14–24
CLEQ4 7:08410Punt14–24
BALQ4 6:10618Turnover on downs14–24
CLEQ4 4:333-3Punt14–24
BALQ4 2:071029Turnover on downs14–24
CLEQ4 0:231-1End of half14–24

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac16/2014202
Randall Cunningham11/2512010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Obafemi Ayanbadejo9485.30
Jason Brookins13463.50
Terry Allen3124.00
Randall Cunningham155.00
Moe Williams122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Qadry Ismail710851
Brandon Stokley57680
Shannon Sharpe69610
Jason Brookins33240
Obafemi Ayanbadejo58200
Jermaine Lewis0100
Travis Taylor0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch11/1814920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Jackson24773.21
Tim Couch4102.50
Jamel White111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Johnson36471
Quincy Morgan11361
O.J. Santiago11270
James Jackson23130
Mike Sellers12120
Dennis Northcutt11110
Aaron Shea1120
Jamel White1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.7%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.51