2001 · Week 6
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
36
Model margin
+6.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.195EPA / play-0.103
- 35.9%Success rate38.9%
- -0.169EPA / dropback-0.101
- -0.247EPA / rush-0.105
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- 30.3%Third-down rate34.9%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
- 0.78Points / drive1.18
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.016EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 24/35 | 226 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 20 | 121 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Chris Weinke | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Hayes | 6 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 5 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 3 | 5 | 15 | 1 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 17/30 | 346 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 26 | 99 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Gardner | 6 | 8 | 208 | 1 |
| Kevin Lockett | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Derrius Thompson | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
6.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.5%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.24