2001 · Week 6

Final / OT

Panthers

Carolina

QB Chris Weinke

14·17

Commanders

Washington

QB Tony Banks

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

36

Model margin

+6.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCommanders
  • -0.195EPA / play-0.103
  • 35.9%Success rate38.9%
  • -0.169EPA / dropback-0.101
  • -0.247EPA / rush-0.105
  • 7.0%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 30.3%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 45.8%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
  • 0.78Points / drive1.18
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%
  • +0.016EPA / play allowed-0.069

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7CAR @ WAS7–40WAS
2021 · W11WAS @ CAR27–21WAS
2020 · W16CAR @ WAS20–13CAR
2019 · W13WAS @ CAR29–21WAS
2018 · W6CAR @ WAS17–23WAS
2016 · W15CAR @ WAS26–15CAR
2015 · W11WAS @ CAR16–44CAR
2012 · W9CAR @ WAS21–13CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–WAS
WASQ1 15:00725Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:2148Punt0–0
WASQ1 10:0636Punt0–0
CARQ1 8:26653Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 5:04533Turnover on downs7–0
CARQ1 3:02411Turnover7–0
WASQ1 1:13848Punt7–0
CARQ2 11:4935Punt7–0
WASQ2 10:5035Turnover7–0
CARQ2 9:59839Turnover7–0
WASQ2 6:20732Turnover7–0
CARQ2 2:491057Turnover7–0
WASQ2 0:081-1End of half7–0
CARQ3 15:00421Punt7–0
WASQ3 11:5539Punt7–0
CARQ3 10:35411Punt7–0
WASQ3 8:431059Punt7–0
CARQ3 3:11983Touchdown14–0
WASQ4 12:5830Punt14–0
CARQ4 12:24430Opp touchdown14–7
WASQ4 10:1000Opp touchdown14–7
CARQ4 10:10314Punt14–13
WASQ4 7:37185Touchdown14–14
CARQ4 7:25311Punt14–14
WASQ4 5:041061Missed field goal14–14
CARQ4 0:361-1End of half14–14
WASOT381Field goal14–17

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Weinke24/3522614

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Biakabutuka201216.01
Chris Weinke1-1-1.00
Steve Smith1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Hayes68750
Isaac Byrd55730
Tim Biakabutuka44290
Muhsin Muhammad23270
Wesley Walls35151

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks17/3034611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis26993.80
Tony Banks2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Gardner682081
Kevin Lockett33330
Stephen Davis22200
Derrius Thompson12190
Michael Westbrook14190
Walter Rasby1530
Ki-Jana Carter11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

6.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.5%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+6.24