2020 · Week 16
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
CAR -1
Total
41
Model margin
+4.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play-0.051
- 45.8%Success rate42.1%
- +0.075EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.030
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.7%
- +2.88CPOE-1.32
- 39.5%Third-down rate40.2%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 2.21Points / drive1.76
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 19/28 | 197 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 7 | 52 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 14 | 28 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Rodney Smith | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 5 | 106 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 7 | 10 | 39 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 5 | 10 | 37 | 0 |
| Rodney Smith | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Haskins | 14/28 | 154 | 0 | 2 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 12/19 | 137 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 10 | 61 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. McKissic | 8 | 10 | 77 | 1 |
| Logan Thomas | 7 | 12 | 63 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 3 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Isaiah Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Gandy-Golden | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.43
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.89