2020 · Week 16

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Teddy Bridgewater

20·13

Commanders

Washington

QB Dwayne Haskins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CAR -1

Total

41

Model margin

+4.9est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCommanders
  • +0.019EPA / play-0.051
  • 45.8%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.075EPA / dropback-0.063
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.030
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +2.88CPOE-1.32
  • 39.5%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.76
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7CAR @ WAS7–40WAS
2021 · W11WAS @ CAR27–21WAS
2019 · W13WAS @ CAR29–21WAS
2018 · W6CAR @ WAS17–23WAS
2016 · W15CAR @ WAS26–15CAR
2015 · W11WAS @ CAR16–44CAR
2012 · W9CAR @ WAS21–13CAR
2011 · W7WAS @ CAR20–33CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–WAS
WASQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
CARQ1 14:10719Turnover on downs0–0
WASQ1 10:15527Turnover0–0
CARQ1 7:5430Punt0–0
WASQ1 6:58522Punt0–0
CARQ1 4:49520Touchdown6–0
WASQ1 1:4239Punt6–0
CARQ2 14:511074Touchdown13–0
WASQ2 8:37419Turnover13–0
CARQ2 6:40655Touchdown20–0
WASQ2 3:06845Field goal20–3
CARQ2 1:20635Turnover20–3
WASQ2 0:1220Turnover20–3
CARQ2 0:0100End of half20–3
CARQ3 15:001344Turnover20–3
WASQ3 6:57666Field goal20–6
CARQ3 4:01729Punt20–6
WASQ4 14:141040Turnover on downs20–6
CARQ4 10:4436Punt20–6
WASQ4 9:081765Turnover on downs20–6
CARQ4 3:3431Punt20–6
WASQ4 3:09891Touchdown20–13
CARQ4 1:5000End of half20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater19/2819711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Samuel7527.40
Mike Davis14282.01
Rodney Smith7233.30
Teddy Bridgewater671.20
Alex Armah133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Curtis Samuel551060
Robbie Chosen710391
DJ Moore510370
Rodney Smith22150
Pharoh Cooper0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dwayne Haskins14/2815402
Taylor Heinicke12/1913710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson10616.10
Taylor Heinicke3227.30
J.D. McKissic4153.80
Peyton Barber11010.00
Logan Thomas100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
J.D. McKissic810771
Logan Thomas712630
Cam Sims39630
Steven Sims46520
Robert Foster12280
Antonio Gibson3480
Isaiah Wright0100
Antonio Gandy-Golden0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.1%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.43
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.89