2012 · Week 9

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

21·13

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

48

Model margin

+3.1est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCommanders
  • +0.081EPA / play+0.137
  • 44.9%Success rate46.7%
  • +0.158EPA / dropback+0.233
  • -0.026EPA / rush+0.030
  • 11.0%Explosive rate12.8%
  • -1.55CPOE+4.84
  • 42.2%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
  • 1.90Points / drive2.11
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7CAR @ WAS7–40WAS
2021 · W11WAS @ CAR27–21WAS
2020 · W16CAR @ WAS20–13CAR
2019 · W13WAS @ CAR29–21WAS
2018 · W6CAR @ WAS17–23WAS
2016 · W15CAR @ WAS26–15CAR
2015 · W11WAS @ CAR16–44CAR
2011 · W7WAS @ CAR20–33CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–WAS
CARQ1 15:00842Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:051263Field goal0–3
CARQ1 4:20769Touchdown7–3
WASQ1 0:241773Turnover on downs7–3
CARQ2 5:131476Touchdown14–3
WASQ2 0:57313End of half14–3
WASQ3 15:00512Punt14–3
CARQ3 12:3936Punt14–3
WASQ3 11:02979Field goal14–6
CARQ3 6:02638Punt14–6
WASQ3 3:18824Punt14–6
CARQ4 14:17486Touchdown21–6
WASQ4 12:463-10Punt21–6
CARQ4 11:26612Punt21–6
WASQ4 7:37820Turnover on downs21–6
CARQ4 6:0332Missed field goal21–6
WASQ4 4:221572Touchdown21–13
CARQ4 1:283-1Punt21–13
WASQ4 0:171-9End of half21–13

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton13/2320110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart10515.10
DeAngelo Williams6376.21
Cam Newton8374.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Armanti Edwards11820
Greg Olsen59480
Steve Smith37411
Gary Barnidge11130
Jonathan Stewart1160
Louis Murphy1240
Kealoha Pilares0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III23/3921500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris13765.80
Robert Griffin III11534.80
Josh Morgan199.00
Evan Royster461.51
Brandon Banks133.00
Dezmon Briscoe111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Logan Paulsen58590
Leonard Hankerson34490
Josh Morgan612460
Evan Royster34300
Niles Paul12220
Dezmon Briscoe1180
Aldrick Robinson1260
Santana Moss1220
Chris Cooley0100
Alfred Morris0100
Brandon Banks22-70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

47.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.13