2012 · Week 9
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
48
Model margin
+3.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play+0.137
- 44.9%Success rate46.7%
- +0.158EPA / dropback+0.233
- -0.026EPA / rush+0.030
- 11.0%Explosive rate12.8%
- -1.55CPOE+4.84
- 42.2%Third-down rate35.5%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 1.90Points / drive2.11
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 13/23 | 201 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armanti Edwards | 1 | 1 | 82 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 7 | 41 | 1 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Kealoha Pilares | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 23/39 | 215 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 13 | 76 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Brandon Banks | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Paulsen | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 6 | 12 | 46 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Banks | 2 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
47.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.13