2018 · Week 6

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

17·23

Commanders

Washington

QB Alex Smith

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CAR -1

Total

44.5

Model margin

0.0est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCommanders
  • +0.067EPA / play-0.073
  • 48.0%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.086EPA / dropback-0.059
  • +0.033EPA / rush-0.096
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +2.75CPOE-3.01
  • 42.1%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 68.2%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 2.20Points / drive1.44
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7CAR @ WAS7–40WAS
2021 · W11WAS @ CAR27–21WAS
2020 · W16CAR @ WAS20–13CAR
2019 · W13WAS @ CAR29–21WAS
2016 · W15CAR @ WAS26–15CAR
2015 · W11WAS @ CAR16–44CAR
2012 · W9CAR @ WAS21–13CAR
2011 · W7WAS @ CAR20–33CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–WAS
CARQ1 15:00522Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:3538Punt0–6
WASQ1 10:26122Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 10:203-1Punt0–7
WASQ1 9:161259Touchdown0–14
CARQ1 3:02729Turnover0–14
WASQ2 14:0649Punt0–14
CARQ2 12:04239Turnover0–14
WASQ2 11:24936Field goal0–17
CARQ2 5:30775Touchdown6–17
WASQ2 3:05631Punt6–17
CARQ2 1:2432Punt6–17
WASQ2 0:5634Punt6–17
CARQ2 0:1700End of half6–17
WASQ3 15:00931Turnover on downs6–17
CARQ3 10:401042Field goal9–17
WASQ3 5:081340Field goal9–20
CARQ4 12:40975Touchdown17–20
WASQ4 8:32949Field goal17–23
CARQ4 3:151268Turnover on downs17–23
WASQ4 0:3400End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton27/4027521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton9434.80
Christian McCaffrey8202.50
DJ Moore11818.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Funchess58741
DJ Moore45590
Greg Olsen47480
Christian McCaffrey78460
Torrey Smith55431
Jarius Wright1230
Chris Manhertz1220

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith21/3616320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson17975.70
Alex Smith6132.20
Kapri Bibbs2115.50
Maurice Harris166.00
Samaje Perine133.00
Paul Richardson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis33481
Jordan Reed59360
Paul Richardson35311
Josh Doctson35200
Maurice Harris34130
Brian Quick22120
Kapri Bibbs1260
Adrian Peterson0100
Michael Floyd0100
Samaje Perine11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin0.00