2018 · Week 6
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
CAR -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
0.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play-0.073
- 48.0%Success rate42.3%
- +0.086EPA / dropback-0.059
- +0.033EPA / rush-0.096
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- +2.75CPOE-3.01
- 42.1%Third-down rate36.2%
- 68.2%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 2.20Points / drive1.44
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 27/40 | 275 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Funchess | 5 | 8 | 74 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 21/36 | 163 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 17 | 97 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 5 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 3 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Josh Doctson | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin0.00