2016 · Week 15
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
WAS -7
Total
50.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.048EPA / play+0.118
- 40.9%Success rate48.2%
- -0.038EPA / dropback+0.202
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.033
- 8.7%Explosive rate10.6%
- -4.49CPOE+4.99
- 36.5%Third-down rate44.9%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
- 1.61Points / drive2.32
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/37 | 300 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 25 | 132 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 9 | 85 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| Corey Brown | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 32/47 | 315 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 9 | 8 | 0.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 7 | 10 | 111 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 11 | 78 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 4 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.36