2016 · Week 15

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

26·15

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

WAS -7

Total

50.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCommanders
  • -0.048EPA / play+0.118
  • 40.9%Success rate48.2%
  • -0.038EPA / dropback+0.202
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.033
  • 8.7%Explosive rate10.6%
  • -4.49CPOE+4.99
  • 36.5%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate51.2%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.32
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7CAR @ WAS7–40WAS
2021 · W11WAS @ CAR27–21WAS
2020 · W16CAR @ WAS20–13CAR
2019 · W13WAS @ CAR29–21WAS
2018 · W6CAR @ WAS17–23WAS
2015 · W11WAS @ CAR16–44CAR
2012 · W9CAR @ WAS21–13CAR
2011 · W7WAS @ CAR20–33CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–WAS
CARQ1 15:00658Field goal3–0
WASQ1 12:4036Punt3–0
CARQ1 11:443-4Punt3–0
WASQ1 10:10738Field goal3–3
CARQ1 6:18884Touchdown10–3
WASQ1 1:50313Turnover10–3
CARQ1 0:28519Field goal13–3
WASQ2 12:2132Punt13–3
CARQ2 11:22640Punt13–3
WASQ2 8:37894Touchdown13–9
CARQ2 3:4341Punt13–9
WASQ2 1:4738Punt13–9
CARQ2 1:22637Punt13–9
WASQ2 0:1600End of half13–9
WASQ3 15:001-9Turnover13–9
CARQ3 14:4721Touchdown20–9
WASQ3 13:5836Punt20–9
CARQ3 12:27418Punt20–9
WASQ3 10:5338Punt20–9
CARQ3 9:04755Field goal23–9
WASQ3 5:071282Field goal23–12
CARQ4 14:08747Punt23–12
WASQ4 10:32410Punt23–12
CARQ4 9:48835Missed field goal23–12
WASQ4 5:37959Field goal23–15
CARQ4 3:44648Field goal26–15
WASQ4 1:07419Turnover26–15
CARQ4 0:3900End of half26–15

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton21/3730020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart251325.30
Fozzy Whittaker331.00
Cam Newton300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen69850
Ted Ginn48641
Corey Brown34420
Ed Dickson11280
Fozzy Whittaker11250
Kelvin Benjamin24200
Jonathan Stewart1280
Devin Funchess0300

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins32/4731501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kirk Cousins2115.50
Chris Thompson2105.00
Rob Kelley980.91

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson7101110
Pierre Garcon711780
Rob Kelley44470
Chris Thompson57260
Jamison Crowder45240
Vernon Davis49230
Jordan Reed1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.36