2024 · Week 7

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Andy Dalton

7·40

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

WAS -10

Total

51

Model margin

+5.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCommanders
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.138
  • 41.8%Success rate48.1%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.040EPA / rush+0.027
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.06CPOE+4.57
  • 36.3%Third-down rate45.9%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.78
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W11WAS @ CAR27–21WAS
2020 · W16CAR @ WAS20–13CAR
2019 · W13WAS @ CAR29–21WAS
2018 · W6CAR @ WAS17–23WAS
2016 · W15CAR @ WAS26–15CAR
2015 · W11WAS @ CAR16–44CAR
2012 · W9CAR @ WAS21–13CAR
2011 · W7WAS @ CAR20–33CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–WAS
CARQ1 15:00861Opp touchdown0–7
CARQ1 11:1436Punt0–7
WASQ1 9:381090Field goal0–10
CARQ1 3:18210Turnover0–10
WASQ1 2:2730Punt0–10
CARQ1 0:3431Punt0–10
WASQ2 13:22530Touchdown0–17
CARQ2 11:35717Turnover on downs0–17
WASQ2 7:32612Field goal0–20
CARQ2 5:39416Punt0–20
WASQ2 2:22982Touchdown0–27
CARQ2 0:1000End of half0–27
WASQ3 15:001164Touchdown0–34
CARQ3 8:5336Punt0–34
WASQ3 7:091070Field goal0–37
CARQ3 1:33965Touchdown7–37
WASQ4 11:381159Field goal7–40
CARQ4 4:553-1Punt7–40
WASQ4 2:34217End of half7–40

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton11/169302
Bryce Young2/2-400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard17523.11
Miles Sanders33411.30
Xavier Legette166.00
Andy Dalton231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Tavion Sanders66610
Diontae Johnson13170
Jalen Coker11100
Ian Thomas2240
Xavier Legette2330
Miles Sanders12-60

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota18/2320520
Jayden Daniels2/2600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson12715.91
Jayden Daniels35016.70
Jeremy McNichols7426.00
Marcus Mariota11343.10
Austin Ekeler4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin66980
Zach Ertz45401
Olamide Zaccheaus46250
Dyami Brown13230
Noah Brown11160
Ben Sinnott2261
Austin Ekeler2230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.27
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.43