2024 · Week 7
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
WAS -10
Total
51
Model margin
+5.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.138
- 41.8%Success rate48.1%
- -0.041EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.040EPA / rush+0.027
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.06CPOE+4.57
- 36.3%Third-down rate45.9%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 1.88Points / drive2.78
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. WAS are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 11/16 | 93 | 0 | 2 |
| Bryce Young | 2/2 | -4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 17 | 52 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jalen Coker | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 18/23 | 205 | 2 | 0 |
| Jayden Daniels | 2/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 12 | 71 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Jayden Daniels | 3 | 50 | 16.7 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 6 | 98 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Ben Sinnott | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.43