2015 · Week 11

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

16·44

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CAR -7

Total

44

Model margin

+4.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.022EPA / play+0.074
  • 42.6%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.022
  • 7.9%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +5.62CPOE+0.41
  • 43.9%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 61.3%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 1.81Points / drive2.31
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7CAR @ WAS7–40WAS
2021 · W11WAS @ CAR27–21WAS
2020 · W16CAR @ WAS20–13CAR
2019 · W13WAS @ CAR29–21WAS
2018 · W6CAR @ WAS17–23WAS
2016 · W15CAR @ WAS26–15CAR
2012 · W9CAR @ WAS21–13CAR
2011 · W7WAS @ CAR20–33CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–CAR
CARQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
WASQ1 14:03520Turnover0–0
CARQ1 11:14331Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 9:56371Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 8:261373Touchdown13–14
WASQ1 0:4100Touchdown14–14
CARQ1 0:273-6Punt14–14
WASQ2 14:2738Punt14–14
CARQ2 12:181069Touchdown14–21
WASQ2 8:2122Turnover14–21
CARQ2 8:05734Touchdown14–28
WASQ2 5:14828Turnover14–28
CARQ2 1:54738Field goal14–31
WASQ3 15:001-9Turnover14–31
CARQ3 14:5136Touchdown14–38
WASQ3 13:523-4Punt14–38
CARQ3 12:18517Punt14–38
WASQ3 9:533-4Punt14–38
CARQ3 8:47943Field goal14–41
WASQ3 4:04646Turnover14–41
CARQ3 1:26858Field goal14–44
WASQ4 10:36710Punt14–44
CARQ4 7:1038Punt14–44
WASQ4 4:49618Punt14–44
CARQ4 2:234-3Safety16–44
WASQ4 0:1610End of half16–44

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins22/3020711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Thompson4102.50
Kirk Cousins144.00
Alfred Morris200.00
Matt Jones500.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson58871
Jordan Reed68460
Pierre Garcon34430
Matt Jones22120
Derek Carrier2370
Chris Thompson3470
Jamison Crowder1150

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton21/3424650

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart211024.90
Cam Newton4164.00
Ted Ginn2126.00
Fozzy Whittaker263.00
Derek Anderson221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Funchess48641
Jerricho Cotchery46570
Greg Olsen36541
Ted Ginn58371
Brenton Bersin11150
Jonathan Stewart11121
Fozzy Whittaker1120
Ed Dickson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.12