2015 · Week 11
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
CAR -7
Total
44
Model margin
+4.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play+0.074
- 42.6%Success rate45.5%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.022
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.3%
- +5.62CPOE+0.41
- 43.9%Third-down rate42.1%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 1.81Points / drive2.31
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 22/30 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 8 | 87 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 6 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/34 | 246 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Funchess | 4 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 5 | 8 | 37 | 1 |
| Brenton Bersin | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.12