2019 · Week 13
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 16mph
Closing spread
CAR -10.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play-0.082
- 38.8%Success rate43.3%
- -0.110EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.106
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- -2.94CPOE-2.45
- 29.0%Third-down rate32.4%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.49Points / drive1.56
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Haskins | 13/25 | 147 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrius Guice | 10 | 129 | 12.9 | 2 |
| Adrian Peterson | 13 | 99 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Harmon | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Derrius Guice | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Quinn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hale Hentges | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 27/46 | 278 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Kyle Allen | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 6 | 12 | 75 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 7 | 65 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 12 | 58 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+2.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.30