2019 · Week 13

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Dwayne Haskins

29·21

Panthers

Carolina

QB Kyle Allen

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

CAR -10.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.130EPA / play-0.082
  • 38.8%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.110EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.106
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -2.94CPOE-2.45
  • 29.0%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.56
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7CAR @ WAS7–40WAS
2021 · W11WAS @ CAR27–21WAS
2020 · W16CAR @ WAS20–13CAR
2018 · W6CAR @ WAS17–23WAS
2016 · W15CAR @ WAS26–15CAR
2015 · W11WAS @ CAR16–44CAR
2012 · W9CAR @ WAS21–13CAR
2011 · W7WAS @ CAR20–33CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–CAR
CARQ1 15:00860Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 10:393-11Punt0–7
CARQ1 8:27655Touchdown0–14
WASQ1 5:18568Field goal3–14
CARQ1 3:09719Punt3–14
WASQ2 14:51841Field goal6–14
CARQ2 11:1636Punt6–14
WASQ2 10:193-5Punt6–14
CARQ2 8:353-4Punt6–14
WASQ2 7:3237Punt6–14
CARQ2 5:2422Turnover12–14
WASQ2 4:3611Touchdown12–14
CARQ2 4:3355Punt12–14
WASQ2 1:46952Missed field goal12–14
WASQ3 15:001162Field goal15–14
CARQ3 8:3331Punt15–14
WASQ3 7:3735Punt15–14
CARQ3 6:35426Punt15–14
CARQ3 4:2525Punt15–14
CARQ3 3:3610Punt15–14
WASQ3 3:22421Punt15–14
CARQ3 0:51513Punt15–14
WASQ4 12:5128Touchdown15–14
WASQ4 11:31321Touchdown15–14
WASQ4 9:29238Touchdown22–14
CARQ4 9:093-6Punt22–14
WASQ4 7:30555Touchdown29–14
CARQ4 4:261275Touchdown29–21
WASQ4 1:5100Turnover29–21
CARQ4 1:51921Turnover29–21
WASQ4 0:1400End of half29–21

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dwayne Haskins13/2514700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrius Guice1012912.92
Adrian Peterson13997.61
Chris Thompson3144.70
Dwayne Haskins461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Harmon35510
Jeremy Sprinkle24360
Steven Sims34290
Chris Thompson12150
Derrius Guice2280
Terry McLaurin2480
Adrian Peterson0100
Trey Quinn0100
Hale Hentges0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen27/4627821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey14443.10
Kyle Allen4225.51
Alex Armah122.00
DJ Moore1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore612751
Curtis Samuel47651
Christian McCaffrey712580
Jarius Wright35340
Ian Thomas44240
Greg Olsen33220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.30