2021 · Week 11
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
CAR -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.132
- 44.8%Success rate41.2%
- -0.018EPA / dropback-0.158
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.089
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.3%
- -0.08CPOE-7.50
- 38.3%Third-down rate36.1%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.78Points / drive1.43
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 8–7 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 16/22 | 206 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 19 | 95 | 5.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 7 | 103 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| John Bates | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Cam Sims | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/27 | 189 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 8 | 60 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 5 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.30