2021 · Week 11

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

27·21

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CAR -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+0.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.036EPA / play-0.132
  • 44.8%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.018EPA / dropback-0.158
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.089
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -0.08CPOE-7.50
  • 38.3%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 59.5%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.43
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W7CAR @ WAS7–40WAS
2020 · W16CAR @ WAS20–13CAR
2019 · W13WAS @ CAR29–21WAS
2018 · W6CAR @ WAS17–23WAS
2016 · W15CAR @ WAS26–15CAR
2015 · W11WAS @ CAR16–44CAR
2012 · W9CAR @ WAS21–13CAR
2011 · W7WAS @ CAR20–33CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–CAR
CARQ1 15:00960Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 9:3237Punt0–7
CARQ1 7:5339Punt0–7
WASQ1 5:52649Turnover0–7
CARQ1 3:03311Punt0–7
WASQ1 1:25766Touchdown7–7
CARQ2 13:29520Punt7–7
WASQ2 10:413-2Punt7–7
CARQ2 8:25665Touchdown7–14
WASQ2 5:521275Touchdown14–14
CARQ2 0:0900End of half14–14
WASQ3 15:001066Touchdown21–14
CARQ3 9:21615Punt21–14
WASQ3 6:05852Punt21–14
CARQ4 14:53776Touchdown21–21
WASQ4 10:441140Field goal24–21
CARQ4 4:13519Turnover on downs24–21
WASQ4 2:53518Field goal27–21
CARQ4 1:50623Turnover on downs27–21
WASQ4 1:0500End of half27–21

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke16/2220630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson19955.00
J.D. McKissic7466.60
Taylor Heinicke6294.80
Jaret Patterson7233.30
DeAndre Carter1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin571031
Adam Humphries22300
John Bates33230
DeAndre Carter23221
Cam Sims22191
Dax Milne1150
J.D. McKissic1240

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton21/2718920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey10595.90
Cam Newton10464.61
Ameer Abdullah166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey78601
DJ Moore57501
Tommy Tremble22350
Robbie Chosen56300
Brandon Zylstra1270
Ian Thomas1170
Terrace Marshall Jr.0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.69
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.30