Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. SD are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 26/41 | 212 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 9 | 15 | 86 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 6 | 9 | 54 | 1 |
| Eddie Kennison | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.