Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 14:43 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 14:07 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 12:27 | 5 | 39 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 9:50 | 11 | 37 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 3:36 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 1:14 | 8 | 65 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q2 11:49 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 10:02 | 7 | 60 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 6:35 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 4:01 | 6 | 20 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| DEN | Q2 2:20 | 10 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| LAC | Q2 0:41 | 6 | 49 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q2 0:06 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–13 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 59 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q3 8:49 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q3 5:03 | 2 | 16 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q3 4:18 | 4 | 33 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| DEN | Q3 2:17 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–20 |
| LAC | Q3 1:03 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 10–20 |
| DEN | Q4 13:54 | 8 | 35 | Turnover | 10–20 |
| LAC | Q4 10:52 | 5 | 38 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| DEN | Q4 8:36 | 9 | 22 | Missed field goal | 10–27 |
| LAC | Q4 5:56 | 5 | 35 | Punt | 10–27 |
| DEN | Q4 2:17 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 10–27 |
| LAC | Q4 0:53 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 10–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 26/41 | 212 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 9 | 15 | 86 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 6 | 9 | 54 | 1 |
| Eddie Kennison | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.