Closing spread
GB -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.050
- 42.5%Success rate42.2%
- +0.197EPA / dropback-0.012
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.133
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- 35.7%Third-down rate42.5%
- 63.7%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.76Points / drive1.40
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.7%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed+0.044
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 13:52 | 7 | 22 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 10:23 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 9:31 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 8:12 | 4 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 5:56 | 10 | 48 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| GB | Q2 15:00 | 5 | 29 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q2 12:05 | 6 | 68 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| GB | Q2 8:18 | 2 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| MIN | Q2 7:56 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| GB | Q2 7:56 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–14 |
| MIN | Q2 7:00 | 6 | 22 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| GB | Q2 3:29 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 0–17 |
| MIN | Q2 1:34 | 7 | 72 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| GB | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–20 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 84 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| MIN | Q3 10:20 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 7–20 |
| GB | Q3 6:38 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–20 |
| MIN | Q3 5:40 | 11 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| GB | Q4 14:07 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 7–28 |
| MIN | Q4 12:21 | 15 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–35 |
| GB | Q4 2:47 | 8 | 64 | Touchdown | 13–35 |
| MIN | Q4 0:45 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 13–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 21/35 | 169 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 11 | 73 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 5 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 4 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Charles Lee | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| David Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 18/27 | 184 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Chapman | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 8 | 75 | 9.4 | 1 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 8 | 12 | 73 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 3 | 6 | 60 | 1 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.35