Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
35.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.048
- 39.2%Success rate40.3%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.113
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- 31.5%Third-down rate35.2%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.34Points / drive1.21
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.115EPA / play allowed-0.053
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 15/26 | 154 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Thrash | 6 | 8 | 77 | 1 |
| Todd Pinkston | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 21/33 | 162 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 16 | 32 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Hilliard | 6 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 5 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 3 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.13