2023 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

10·27

Giants

New York

QB Tyrod Taylor

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 36°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PHI -4.5

Total

43

Model margin

+4.4est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • +0.061EPA / play-0.165
  • 46.3%Success rate38.2%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback-0.143
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.205
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +3.86CPOE+0.19
  • 47.5%Third-down rate30.9%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.09
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI
2022 · W14PHI @ NYG48–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00415Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:08513Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:00867Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 6:54757Turnover0–3
NYGQ1 3:3739Punt0–3
PHIQ1 1:38733Turnover on downs0–3
NYGQ2 14:06953Touchdown0–10
PHIQ2 9:383-10Punt0–10
NYGQ2 8:01655Touchdown0–17
PHIQ2 5:083-2Punt0–17
NYGQ2 2:56473Touchdown0–24
PHIQ2 1:4732Turnover0–24
NYGQ2 1:2830Punt0–24
PHIQ2 1:0510Turnover0–24
NYGQ2 1:0010Turnover0–24
PHIQ2 0:5539End of half0–24
PHIQ3 15:00738Punt0–24
NYGQ3 11:331048Punt0–24
PHIQ3 6:031266Field goal3–24
NYGQ3 1:11521Punt3–24
PHIQ4 13:44881Touchdown10–24
NYGQ4 10:151172Field goal10–27
PHIQ4 3:3923Turnover10–27
NYGQ4 3:2832Missed field goal10–27
PHIQ4 1:5949End of half10–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota13/2014811
Jalen Hurts7/165501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenny Gainwell7628.90
Marcus Mariota6467.70
Rashaad Penny6162.70
Boston Scott351.70
Jalen Hurts242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quez Watkins811931
Britain Covey35350
Olamide Zaccheaus24200
Grant Calcaterra22180
Julio Jones24130
Jack Stoll11110
A.J. Brown1190
Dallas Goedert1340
Boston Scott0100
Kenny Gainwell0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor23/3229711
Tommy DeVito2/21400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley18462.62
Tyrod Taylor8384.80
Eric Gray3196.30
Sterling Shepard166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wan'Dale Robinson56850
Darius Slayton57621
Saquon Barkley22510
Darren Waller56450
Isaiah Hodgins33360
Sterling Shepard35180
Eric Gray1190
Jalin Hyatt1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.9%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.55
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.43