Closing spread
PHI -4.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play-0.165
- 46.3%Success rate38.2%
- +0.106EPA / dropback-0.143
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.205
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- +3.86CPOE+0.19
- 47.5%Third-down rate30.9%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 2.30Points / drive1.09
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 13/20 | 148 | 1 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7/16 | 55 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 7 | 62 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quez Watkins | 8 | 11 | 93 | 1 |
| Britain Covey | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 23/32 | 297 | 1 | 1 |
| Tommy DeVito | 2/2 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 18 | 46 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 5 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 2 | 51 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 5 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.43