Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
42
Model margin
-4.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play-0.088
- 45.2%Success rate41.1%
- +0.165EPA / dropback-0.073
- +0.056EPA / rush-0.116
- 10.7%Explosive rate6.8%
- +6.20CPOE-1.45
- 42.4%Third-down rate36.0%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 2.46Points / drive1.28
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 10/14 | 114 | 1 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 17 | 176 | 10.4 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Will Shipley | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 5 | 89 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 14/21 | 99 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 3/8 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 4 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.03