2024 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

28·3

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 71°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

42

Model margin

-4.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • +0.111EPA / play-0.088
  • 45.2%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.165EPA / dropback-0.073
  • +0.056EPA / rush-0.116
  • 10.7%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +6.20CPOE-1.45
  • 42.4%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 64.1%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
  • 2.46Points / drive1.28
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI
2022 · W14PHI @ NYG48–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00420Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:32417Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:3946Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:283-4Punt0–0
NYGQ1 7:093-4Punt0–0
PHIQ1 5:10822Punt0–0
NYGQ1 0:10716Punt0–0
PHIQ2 11:32574Touchdown7–0
NYGQ2 8:584-3Punt7–0
PHIQ2 6:50658Touchdown14–0
NYGQ2 4:273-3Punt14–0
PHIQ2 3:053-9Punt14–0
NYGQ2 1:41944Field goal14–3
PHIQ2 0:0500End of half14–3
PHIQ3 15:0034Punt14–3
NYGQ3 13:1937Punt14–3
PHIQ3 11:501177Touchdown21–3
NYGQ3 7:03821Punt21–3
PHIQ3 2:331092Touchdown28–3
NYGQ4 11:263-1Punt28–3
PHIQ4 10:3232Punt28–3
NYGQ4 8:52514Punt28–3
PHIQ4 6:3737Punt28–3
NYGQ4 4:1430Punt28–3
PHIQ4 3:2360Punt28–3
NYGQ4 0:1912End of half28–3

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts10/1411410
Kenny Pickett0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley1717610.41
Kenny Gainwell13564.30
Jalen Hurts7223.12
Will Shipley8151.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown55891
Saquon Barkley23110
Kenny Gainwell11110
Grant Calcaterra1150
Parris Campbell0100
Jahan Dotson0100
DeVonta Smith12-20

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones14/219900
Drew Lock3/8600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.6233.80
Daniel Jones5204.00
Devin Singletary5183.60
Drew Lock11313.00
Eric Gray122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers48410
Wan'Dale Robinson69230
Darius Slayton13110
Daniel Bellinger11110
Tyrone Tracy Jr.3390
Eric Gray1170
Devin Singletary1130
Jalin Hyatt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.4%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.03