2022 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Davis Webb

16·22

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PHI -16.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • +0.033EPA / play+0.100
  • 45.0%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.058EPA / dropback+0.121
  • -0.004EPA / rush+0.072
  • 7.9%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +1.68CPOE+2.05
  • 37.7%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.43
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W14PHI @ NYG48–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
NYGQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:27651Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 11:3931Punt0–3
PHIQ1 10:411280Touchdown0–10
NYGQ1 4:14920Turnover on downs0–10
PHIQ2 15:0038Punt0–10
NYGQ2 13:3335Punt0–10
PHIQ2 11:5335Field goal0–13
NYGQ2 10:221032Punt0–13
PHIQ2 6:001344Field goal0–16
NYGQ2 0:45512Punt0–16
PHIQ2 0:0200End of half0–16
PHIQ3 15:00946Turnover0–16
NYGQ3 12:06515Punt0–16
PHIQ3 8:58636Field goal0–19
NYGQ3 6:17879Field goal3–19
PHIQ3 0:5035Punt3–19
NYGQ4 14:501064Touchdown9–19
PHIQ4 10:041471Field goal9–22
NYGQ4 3:21749Touchdown16–22
PHIQ4 1:3800End of half16–22

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Webb23/4016810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gary Brightwell11605.50
Davis Webb6416.81
Matt Breida4287.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lawrence Cager810690
Marcus Johnson36360
Kenny Golladay27301
Nick Vannett24180
Matt Breida78120
Gary Brightwell1330

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts20/3522901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Boston Scott9546.01
Kenny Gainwell5357.00
Miles Sanders11333.00
Jalen Hurts9131.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown410950
DeVonta Smith78670
Dallas Goedert67460
Quez Watkins24140
Kenny Gainwell1170
Miles Sanders0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +16.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.27
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.60