Closing spread
PHI -16.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play+0.100
- 45.0%Success rate47.9%
- +0.058EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.004EPA / rush+0.072
- 7.9%Explosive rate11.3%
- +1.68CPOE+2.05
- 37.7%Third-down rate46.2%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.02Points / drive2.43
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Webb | 23/40 | 168 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Brightwell | 11 | 60 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Davis Webb | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawrence Cager | 8 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 2 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 7 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 20/35 | 229 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Scott | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 10 | 95 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.60