2025 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

17·34

Giants

New York

QB Jaxson Dart

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

40.5

Model margin

-0.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • +0.034EPA / play+0.043
  • 43.3%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback+0.099
  • -0.047EPA / rush-0.040
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +3.26CPOE-1.30
  • 37.5%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 72.0%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.06
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI
2022 · W14PHI @ NYG48–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
PHIQ1 15:00536Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 11:59659Touchdown3–7
PHIQ1 9:593-6Punt3–7
NYGQ1 7:39466Touchdown3–13
PHIQ1 5:37875Touchdown10–13
NYGQ1 1:4936Punt10–13
PHIQ2 14:501374Touchdown17–13
NYGQ2 6:561567Touchdown17–20
PHIQ2 1:19645End of half17–20
NYGQ3 15:0038Punt17–20
PHIQ3 13:4334Punt17–20
NYGQ3 12:081036Touchdown17–27
PHIQ3 7:5648Punt17–27
NYGQ3 5:25953Punt17–27
PHIQ3 1:1438Punt17–27
NYGQ4 13:5832Punt17–27
PHIQ4 12:51526Turnover17–27
NYGQ4 11:2548Touchdown17–34
PHIQ4 9:41769Turnover17–34
NYGQ4 6:50963End of half17–34

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts24/3328311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley12584.80
Jalen Hurts7131.91
AJ Dillon122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert9111101
A.J. Brown69800
DeVonta Smith45490
AJ Dillon22180
Jahan Dotson12170
Saquon Barkley2390

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jaxson Dart17/2519510
Russell Wilson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Skattebo19985.23
Jaxson Dart13584.51
Devin Singletary3103.30
Tyrone Tracy Jr.461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wan'Dale Robinson67841
Lil'Jordan Humphrey48550
Theo Johnson24270
Jalin Hyatt35170
Cam Skattebo22120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.02