Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play+0.043
- 43.3%Success rate42.9%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.099
- -0.047EPA / rush-0.040
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- +3.26CPOE-1.30
- 37.5%Third-down rate39.6%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
- 2.11Points / drive2.06
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 24/33 | 283 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 9 | 11 | 110 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 6 | 9 | 80 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 17/25 | 195 | 1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo | 19 | 98 | 5.2 | 3 |
| Jaxson Dart | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 4 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Cam Skattebo | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.02