2023 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Tommy DeVito

25·33

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -14

Total

41

Model margin

+2.5est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • -0.165EPA / play+0.061
  • 38.2%Success rate46.3%
  • -0.143EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.205EPA / rush-0.007
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.19CPOE+3.86
  • 30.9%Third-down rate47.5%
  • 45.8%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.09Points / drive2.30
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI
2022 · W14PHI @ NYG48–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
NYGQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:14213Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 12:27946Field goal3–7
PHIQ1 8:041782Field goal3–10
NYGQ2 14:5338Punt3–10
PHIQ2 12:52352Touchdown3–17
NYGQ2 11:44412Punt3–17
PHIQ2 10:033-4Punt3–17
NYGQ2 8:271234Turnover on downs3–17
PHIQ2 2:471069Field goal3–20
PHIQ3 15:0000Touchdown3–20
NYGQ3 14:55314Touchdown10–20
PHIQ3 13:4135Punt10–20
NYGQ3 12:03935Punt10–20
PHIQ3 7:351576Opp touchdown18–20
PHIQ3 0:09990Touchdown18–27
NYGQ4 11:07633Turnover on downs18–27
PHIQ4 8:50632Field goal18–30
NYGQ4 6:04275Touchdown25–30
PHIQ4 5:22850Field goal25–33
NYGQ4 1:10834Turnover25–33

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor7/1613311
Tommy DeVito9/165500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley23803.51
Tyrod Taylor22110.50
Tommy DeVito155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton33901
Daniel Bellinger45430
Darren Waller25320
Wan'Dale Robinson37160
Saquon Barkley3640
Matt Breida1130

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts24/3830111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift20924.61
Kenny Gainwell6416.80
Jalen Hurts8344.31
Boston Scott133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown611800
DeVonta Smith45791
Dallas Goedert79710
Kenny Gainwell33380
Grant Calcaterra22210
Britain Covey1170
Julio Jones1450
Olamide Zaccheaus0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.45