Closing spread
PHI -14
Total
41
Model margin
+2.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.165EPA / play+0.061
- 38.2%Success rate46.3%
- -0.143EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.007
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.19CPOE+3.86
- 30.9%Third-down rate47.5%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.09Points / drive2.30
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 7/16 | 133 | 1 | 1 |
| Tommy DeVito | 9/16 | 55 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 23 | 80 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Tommy DeVito | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 3 | 90 | 1 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 3 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 24/38 | 301 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 6 | 11 | 80 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 5 | 79 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 7 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Britain Covey | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.45