Closing spread
PHI -8
Total
48
Model margin
+4.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play+0.100
- 45.0%Success rate47.9%
- +0.058EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.004EPA / rush+0.072
- 7.9%Explosive rate11.3%
- +1.68CPOE+2.05
- 37.7%Third-down rate46.2%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.02Points / drive2.43
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 15/27 | 135 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 9 | 61 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Gary Brightwell | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie James | 7 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Lawrence Cager | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 16/24 | 154 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 12 | 112 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 17 | 90 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 10 | 61 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 5 | 58 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.89