2022 · DIV · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

7·38

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -8

Total

48

Model margin

+4.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • +0.033EPA / play+0.100
  • 45.0%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.058EPA / dropback+0.121
  • -0.004EPA / rush+0.072
  • 7.9%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +1.68CPOE+2.05
  • 37.7%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.43
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI
2022 · W14PHI @ NYG48–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00875Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 10:06828Turnover on downs0–7
PHIQ1 5:39852Touchdown0–14
NYGQ1 1:21219Turnover0–14
PHIQ1 0:2732Punt0–14
NYGQ2 14:4039Punt0–14
PHIQ2 12:21963Touchdown0–21
NYGQ2 7:293-1Punt0–21
PHIQ2 5:471467Touchdown0–28
NYGQ2 0:4339Punt0–28
PHIQ2 0:1700End of half0–28
NYGQ3 15:0034Punt0–28
PHIQ3 13:5530Punt0–28
NYGQ3 12:161088Touchdown7–28
PHIQ3 6:15637Punt7–28
NYGQ3 1:19735Punt7–28
PHIQ4 13:121580Field goal7–31
NYGQ4 5:16813Turnover on downs7–31
PHIQ4 2:51341Touchdown7–38
NYGQ4 1:51523End of half7–38

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones15/2713501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley9616.80
Daniel Jones6244.00
Matt Breida4235.81
Gary Brightwell11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Richie James710510
Saquon Barkley23210
Matt Breida11190
Marcus Johnson11170
Lawrence Cager11160
Darius Slayton1540
Daniel Bellinger1340
Isaiah Hodgins1230

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts16/2415420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenny Gainwell121129.31
Miles Sanders17905.30
Jalen Hurts9343.81
Boston Scott6325.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith610611
Dallas Goedert55581
A.J. Brown36220
Kenny Gainwell1290
Zach Pascal1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.1%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.89