2025 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Jaxson Dart

20·38

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.034
  • 42.9%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.099EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.047
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -1.30CPOE+3.26
  • 39.6%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
  • 2.06Points / drive2.11
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI
2022 · W14PHI @ NYG48–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00265Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 14:4344Punt0–7
PHIQ1 12:14850Missed field goal0–7
NYGQ1 6:10652Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 2:561158Touchdown7–14
NYGQ2 11:38726Punt7–14
PHIQ2 7:543-4Punt7–14
NYGQ2 6:13637Field goal10–14
PHIQ2 2:53753Touchdown10–21
NYGQ2 0:2100End of half10–21
NYGQ3 15:0030Punt10–21
PHIQ3 13:101145Field goal10–24
NYGQ3 7:031464Field goal13–24
PHIQ3 0:19772Touchdown13–31
NYGQ4 11:174-1Punt13–31
PHIQ4 9:29673Touchdown13–38
NYGQ4 5:59765Touchdown20–38
PHIQ4 2:44117End of half20–38

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jaxson Dart14/2419310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.10393.90
Jaxson Dart6172.81
Cam Skattebo3124.00
Devin Singletary200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wan'Dale Robinson34480
Devin Singletary11280
Darius Slayton25260
Daniel Bellinger11210
Theo Johnson34200
Beaux Collins12180
Cam Skattebo12181
Tyrone Tracy Jr.23140

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts15/2017940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley1415010.71
Tank Bigsby910411.60
Jalen Hurts4225.50
Will Shipley320.70
Tanner McKee3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith69840
Jahan Dotson12401
Dallas Goedert33282
Saquon Barkley45241
Xavier Gipson1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.43