Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.034
- 42.9%Success rate43.3%
- +0.099EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.047
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- -1.30CPOE+3.26
- 39.6%Third-down rate37.5%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 2.06Points / drive2.11
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 14/24 | 193 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jaxson Dart | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Cam Skattebo | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Beaux Collins | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Cam Skattebo | 1 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15/20 | 179 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 14 | 150 | 10.7 | 1 |
| Tank Bigsby | 9 | 104 | 11.6 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Tanner McKee | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 9 | 84 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 2 | 40 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 3 | 28 | 2 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.43