Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
+7.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play+0.111
- 41.1%Success rate45.2%
- -0.073EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.116EPA / rush+0.056
- 6.8%Explosive rate10.7%
- -1.45CPOE+6.20
- 36.0%Third-down rate42.4%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.28Points / drive2.46
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 22/29 | 138 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 5 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 10 | 11 | 43 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner McKee | 27/41 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Shipley | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 11 | 14 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Ainias Smith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tanner McKee | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahan Dotson | 7 | 11 | 94 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Ainias Smith | 4 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Johnny Wilson | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| E.J. Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.93