2024 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Drew Lock

13·20

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Tanner McKee

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 31°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

36.5

Model margin

+7.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • -0.088EPA / play+0.111
  • 41.1%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback+0.165
  • -0.116EPA / rush+0.056
  • 6.8%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -1.45CPOE+6.20
  • 36.0%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 1.28Points / drive2.46
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI
2022 · W14PHI @ NYG48–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
NYGQ1 15:001036Turnover on downs0–0
PHIQ1 8:52451Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 6:5133Punt0–7
PHIQ1 5:161360Missed field goal0–7
NYGQ2 14:061237Turnover on downs0–7
PHIQ2 6:511273Field goal0–10
NYGQ2 1:4438Punt0–10
PHIQ2 0:43627Punt0–10
PHIQ3 15:0048Turnover on downs0–10
NYGQ3 13:21958Field goal3–10
PHIQ3 7:343-2Punt3–10
NYGQ3 5:5535Punt3–10
PHIQ3 3:47761Touchdown3–17
NYGQ4 14:55870Touchdown10–17
PHIQ4 10:323-10Punt10–17
NYGQ4 8:53313Field goal13–17
PHIQ4 7:211536Field goal13–20
NYGQ4 0:4738Turnover13–20
PHIQ4 0:2400End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock22/2913811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.14594.20
Devin Singletary7223.10
Eric Gray166.00
Drew Lock231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers58641
Wan'Dale Robinson1011430
Chris Manhertz11160
Daniel Bellinger2290
Tyrone Tracy Jr.2270
Eric Gray1140
Darius Slayton0100
Jalin Hyatt0100
Devin Singletary11-50

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tanner McKee27/4126920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Will Shipley10323.20
Kenny Gainwell11141.30
Ainias Smith144.00
Tanner McKee310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jahan Dotson711940
Dallas Goedert46550
Will Shipley44350
Ainias Smith46351
Johnny Wilson35240
Grant Calcaterra24100
Kenny Gainwell2490
E.J. Jenkins1171

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.9%5.6%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.7%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.93