Closing spread
IND -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.005EPA / play+0.014
- 45.6%Success rate43.9%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.002
- -0.069EPA / rush+0.032
- 10.6%Explosive rate10.8%
- 41.4%Third-down rate36.1%
- 66.3%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 1.62Points / drive1.54
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.0%
- +0.059EPA / play allowed-0.011
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. KC are 5-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 19/30 | 201 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 27 | 102 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 4 | 87 | 21.8 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 8 | 11 | 98 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 |
| Tony Simmons | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 22/43 | 324 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Larry Parker | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Parker | 6 | 14 | 76 | 2 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 3 | 75 | 1 |
| Snoop Minnis | 4 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Jason Dunn | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Thomas | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
6.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.33