2001 · Week 7

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

35·28

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Trent Green

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

KC perspective

Push chance

6.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.005EPA / play+0.014
  • 45.6%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback+0.002
  • -0.069EPA / rush+0.032
  • 10.6%Explosive rate10.8%
  • 41.4%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 66.3%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.54
  • 3.4%Turnover rate3.0%
  • +0.059EPA / play allowed-0.011

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 12–6 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. KC are 5-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2IND @ KC30–33KC
2025 · W12IND @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W3KC @ IND17–20IND
2019 · W5IND @ KC19–13IND
2018 · playoffsIND @ KC13–31KC
2016 · W8KC @ IND30–14KC
2013 · playoffsKC @ IND44–45IND
2013 · W16IND @ KC23–7IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–KC
KCQ1 15:00514Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:3637Punt0–0
KCQ1 11:04826Punt0–0
INDQ1 7:4032Punt0–0
KCQ1 6:4110Turnover0–0
INDQ1 6:34615Missed field goal0–0
KCQ1 4:0437Punt0–0
INDQ1 2:30610Punt0–0
KCQ2 14:39525Punt0–0
INDQ2 11:3839Punt0–0
KCQ2 9:4730Punt0–0
INDQ2 9:141168Touchdown7–0
KCQ2 2:2232Punt7–0
INDQ2 1:39434Turnover7–0
KCQ2 0:45429Field goal7–3
INDQ3 15:001139Field goal10–3
KCQ3 9:02865Field goal16–6
INDQ3 5:0500Touchdown17–6
KCQ3 4:50559Touchdown17–14
INDQ3 3:01852Field goal20–14
KCQ4 13:00620Turnover20–14
INDQ4 10:28464Touchdown28–14
KCQ4 8:21983Touchdown28–21
INDQ4 4:453-6Punt28–21
KCQ4 3:59829Turnover28–21
INDQ4 2:01380Touchdown35–21
KCQ4 1:02656Touchdown35–28
INDQ4 0:041-1End of half35–28

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning19/3020120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James271023.80
Dominic Rhodes48721.81
Peyton Manning252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison811981
Reggie Wayne57630
Ken Dilger22200
Edgerrin James2290
Marcus Pollard1561
Tony Simmons1350

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Green22/4332433

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Priest Holmes15553.70
Trent Green3196.30
Larry Parker111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Parker614762
Tony Gonzalez33751
Snoop Minnis45640
Jason Dunn12280
Priest Holmes35230
Chris Thomas14190
Mikhael Ricks25140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

6.59%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.33