2001 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

17·18

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Randall Cunningham

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

33

Model margin

+8.7est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapRavens
  • -0.282EPA / play-0.088
  • 40.8%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.233EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.375EPA / rush-0.166
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 34.6%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 26.3%Red-zone TD rate45.6%
  • 0.28Points / drive1.28
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%
  • -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.148

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15BAL @ JAX23–7BAL
2022 · W12BAL @ JAX27–28JAX
2020 · W15JAX @ BAL14–40BAL
2017 · W3BAL @ JAX7–44JAX
2016 · W3BAL @ JAX19–17BAL
2015 · W10JAX @ BAL22–20JAX
2014 · W15JAX @ BAL12–20BAL
2011 · W7BAL @ JAX7–12JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–BAL
JAXQ1 15:001141Turnover on downs0–0
BALQ1 9:4731Punt0–0
JAXQ1 8:00410Punt0–0
BALQ1 5:341064Field goal0–3
JAXQ2 14:55765Field goal3–3
BALQ2 11:31815Punt3–3
JAXQ2 7:37644Punt3–3
BALQ2 3:021144Punt3–3
JAXQ2 0:3112End of half3–3
BALQ3 15:00858Field goal3–6
JAXQ3 10:17539Turnover3–6
BALQ3 8:10717Punt3–6
JAXQ3 4:30980Touchdown10–6
BALQ3 1:202-7Turnover10–6
JAXQ3 0:23245Touchdown17–6
BALQ4 14:53971Touchdown17–12
JAXQ4 9:4833Punt17–12
BALQ4 8:08845Touchdown17–18
JAXQ4 4:07836Turnover on downs17–18
BALQ4 1:463-3Punt17–18
JAXQ4 0:1930End of half17–18

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell25/3730620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Brunell45513.80
Elvis Joseph7121.70
Stacey Mack284.00
Frank Moreau263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith7101191
Keenan McCardell10171180
Kyle Brady33290
Sean Dawkins11150
Stacey Mack23101
Elvis Joseph1180
Alvis Whitted1270

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Randall Cunningham23/3122211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jason Brookins19824.31
Obafemi Ayanbadejo6244.00
Jermaine Lewis11414.00
Randall Cunningham5-3-0.60
Moe Williams1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shannon Sharpe710890
Qadry Ismail78851
Travis Taylor35170
Jason Brookins23120
Obafemi Ayanbadejo2200
Todd Heap0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.52.7%5.4%7.0%3.1%5.0%3.5%3.4%2.8%2.4%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

71.5%

Expected total

40.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.65
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+8.72