Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
33
Model margin
+8.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.282EPA / play-0.088
- 40.8%Success rate39.6%
- -0.233EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.375EPA / rush-0.166
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- 34.6%Third-down rate36.2%
- 26.3%Red-zone TD rate45.6%
- 0.28Points / drive1.28
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 25/37 | 306 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 4 | 55 | 13.8 | 0 |
| Elvis Joseph | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Frank Moreau | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 7 | 10 | 119 | 1 |
| Keenan McCardell | 10 | 17 | 118 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Elvis Joseph | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cunningham | 23/31 | 222 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Brookins | 19 | 82 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 7 | 10 | 89 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 7 | 8 | 85 | 1 |
| Travis Taylor | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jason Brookins | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.5%
Expected total
40.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.65
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+8.72