Closing spread
BAL -4
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play-0.032
- 47.3%Success rate43.1%
- +0.111EPA / dropback+0.053
- +0.009EPA / rush-0.192
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.1%
- +2.73CPOE+1.62
- 42.3%Third-down rate38.5%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
- 2.25Points / drive1.84
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14/24 | 171 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 12 | 97 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 9 | 73 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 5 | 6 | 70 | 1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 25/43 | 264 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Agnew | 2 | 2 | 70 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 12 | 39 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 4 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Elijah Cooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.25