2023 · Week 15

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

23·7

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

BAL -4

Total

42.5

Model margin

-0.3est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapJaguars
  • +0.069EPA / play-0.032
  • 47.3%Success rate43.1%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback+0.053
  • +0.009EPA / rush-0.192
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +2.73CPOE+1.62
  • 42.3%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate56.5%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.84
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W12BAL @ JAX27–28JAX
2020 · W15JAX @ BAL14–40BAL
2017 · W3BAL @ JAX7–44JAX
2016 · W3BAL @ JAX19–17BAL
2015 · W10JAX @ BAL22–20JAX
2014 · W15JAX @ BAL12–20BAL
2011 · W7BAL @ JAX7–12JAX
2008 · W17JAX @ BAL7–27BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00623Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:121076Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 6:21643Missed field goal3–0
BALQ1 3:033-12Punt3–0
JAXQ1 0:59726Missed field goal3–0
BALQ2 13:01317Turnover3–0
JAXQ2 11:371037Turnover3–0
BALQ2 5:421385Touchdown10–0
JAXQ2 1:12652End of half10–0
BALQ3 15:00822Punt10–0
JAXQ3 10:14588Touchdown10–7
BALQ3 7:15737Punt10–7
JAXQ3 4:1437Punt10–7
BALQ3 2:15558Touchdown17–7
JAXQ4 14:5838Punt17–7
BALQ4 13:321063Field goal20–7
JAXQ4 8:003-6Turnover20–7
BALQ4 7:3633Field goal23–7
JAXQ4 6:011355Turnover on downs23–7
BALQ4 3:19847End of half23–7

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson14/2417111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson12978.10
Keaton Mitchell9738.10
Gus Edwards16583.61
Justice Hill5234.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Likely56701
Rashod Bateman36390
Charlie Kolar11150
Keaton Mitchell22150
Odell Beckham Jr.13140
Gus Edwards11110
Zay Flowers1270
Nelson Agholor0100
Justice Hill0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence25/4326410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trevor Lawrence44110.30
Travis Etienne10313.10
D'Ernest Johnson252.50
Tank Bigsby1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamal Agnew22701
Zay Jones58590
Calvin Ridley512390
Evan Engram46280
Luke Farrell11280
Travis Etienne46280
Parker Washington46120
Elijah Cooks0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.25