Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.045
- 45.3%Success rate46.6%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.137
- +0.034EPA / rush-0.100
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- -1.40CPOE+1.07
- 42.2%Third-down rate42.0%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.87Points / drive2.07
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16/32 | 254 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14 | 89 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 16 | 52 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Oliver | 4 | 6 | 76 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 3 | 74 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 29/37 | 321 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JaMycal Hasty | 12 | 28 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Snoop Conner | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 11 | 14 | 145 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 5 | 5 | 67 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 5 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
6.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.33
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.60