2022 · Week 12

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

27·28

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+4.6est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Jaguars

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapJaguars
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.045
  • 45.3%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.137
  • +0.034EPA / rush-0.100
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -1.40CPOE+1.07
  • 42.2%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 46.9%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.07
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15BAL @ JAX23–7BAL
2020 · W15JAX @ BAL14–40BAL
2017 · W3BAL @ JAX7–44JAX
2016 · W3BAL @ JAX19–17BAL
2015 · W10JAX @ BAL22–20JAX
2014 · W15JAX @ BAL12–20BAL
2011 · W7BAL @ JAX7–12JAX
2008 · W17JAX @ BAL7–27BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–JAX
BALQ1 15:001170Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 9:23625Turnover on downs3–0
BALQ1 6:01738Field goal6–0
JAXQ1 2:0335Punt6–0
BALQ1 0:51730Turnover6–0
JAXQ2 11:52450Touchdown6–7
BALQ2 9:571138Field goal9–7
JAXQ2 4:511171Field goal9–10
BALQ2 0:0900End of half9–10
JAXQ3 15:0037Punt9–10
BALQ3 13:20974Field goal12–10
JAXQ3 7:5139Punt12–10
BALQ3 6:09940Punt12–10
JAXQ3 2:4455Turnover12–10
BALQ3 0:19725Touchdown19–10
JAXQ4 13:071475Touchdown19–17
BALQ4 5:5514Turnover19–17
JAXQ4 5:4235Field goal19–20
BALQ4 4:19785Touchdown27–20
JAXQ4 2:021080Touchdown27–28
BALQ4 0:14112Missed field goal27–28

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson16/3225410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson14896.40
Gus Edwards16523.31
Devin Duvernay2168.00
Justice Hill133.00
Kenyan Drake221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Oliver46761
DeSean Jackson23740
Mark Andrews47500
Devin Duvernay35230
Demarcus Robinson14170
Patrick Ricard23140
Kenyan Drake0100
Gus Edwards0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence29/3732130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
JaMycal Hasty12282.30
Snoop Conner3113.70
Travis Etienne231.50
Trevor Lawrence210.50
Christian Kirk1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Jones11141450
JaMycal Hasty55671
Christian Kirk49460
Jamal Agnew55371
Marvin Jones33221
Evan Engram1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

6.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.33
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.60