2016 · Week 3

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

19·17

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 88°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -1

Total

45

Model margin

+2.8est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapJaguars
  • -0.060EPA / play-0.060
  • 40.7%Success rate41.3%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.210
  • 7.1%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -0.41CPOE-4.51
  • 38.2%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate71.4%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.52
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15BAL @ JAX23–7BAL
2022 · W12BAL @ JAX27–28JAX
2020 · W15JAX @ BAL14–40BAL
2017 · W3BAL @ JAX7–44JAX
2015 · W10JAX @ BAL22–20JAX
2014 · W15JAX @ BAL12–20BAL
2011 · W7BAL @ JAX7–12JAX
2008 · W17JAX @ BAL7–27BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
BALQ1 14:0131Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:52615Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:4538Punt0–0
JAXQ1 8:5332Punt0–0
BALQ1 7:55865Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 3:52422Turnover7–0
BALQ1 1:54946Field goal10–0
JAXQ2 11:07624Punt10–0
BALQ2 8:40417Punt10–0
JAXQ2 5:45837Touchdown10–7
BALQ2 1:55821Field goal13–7
BALQ3 15:00856Field goal16–7
JAXQ3 10:211178Touchdown16–14
BALQ3 4:5947Punt16–14
JAXQ3 3:22731Punt16–14
BALQ4 14:49514Punt16–14
JAXQ4 11:5352Punt16–14
JAXQ4 9:0138Field goal16–17
BALQ4 7:27526Turnover16–17
JAXQ4 5:1730Turnover16–17
BALQ4 4:0821Turnover16–17
JAXQ4 3:173-5Missed field goal16–17
BALQ4 2:59722Field goal19–17
JAXQ4 1:024-1Turnover19–17
BALQ4 0:1500End of half19–17

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco29/4021402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West10454.50
Justin Forsett7202.90
Joe Flacco3124.01
Mike Wallace155.00
Breshad Perriman122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith811870
Dennis Pitta68420
Mike Wallace36340
Breshad Perriman24220
Justin Forsett67120
Terrance West1180
Kamar Aiken1150
Chris Moore1120

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles24/3819423

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Blake Bortles3175.70
T.J. Yeldon6172.80
Chris Ivory12141.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson711572
Marqise Lee57440
Allen Hurns48400
Marcedes Lewis33200
Julius Thomas25130
T.J. Yeldon23110
Chris Ivory1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.81