Closing spread
BAL -1
Total
45
Model margin
+2.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play-0.060
- 40.7%Success rate41.3%
- -0.041EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.210
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.1%
- -0.41CPOE-4.51
- 38.2%Third-down rate34.7%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate71.4%
- 1.63Points / drive1.52
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 29/40 | 214 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 8 | 11 | 87 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 6 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 6 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 24/38 | 194 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 12 | 14 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 7 | 11 | 57 | 2 |
| Marqise Lee | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 4 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.07
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.81