Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
38
Model margin
+3.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play+0.020
- 42.5%Success rate41.7%
- -0.054EPA / dropback+0.095
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.33CPOE-2.97
- 35.3%Third-down rate36.9%
- 63.2%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.79Points / drive1.81
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mallett | 6/9 | 36 | 1 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 8/18 | 28 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 9 | 82 | 9.1 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Boyle | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 5 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Matthews | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Campanaro | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 20/31 | 244 | 4 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Grant | 6 | 75 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 4 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 5 | 62 | 3 |
| Chris Ivory | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
6.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.02