2017 · Week 3

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

7·44

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

38

Model margin

+3.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapJaguars
  • -0.052EPA / play+0.020
  • 42.5%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.054EPA / dropback+0.095
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.2%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.33CPOE-2.97
  • 35.3%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 63.2%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.81
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15BAL @ JAX23–7BAL
2022 · W12BAL @ JAX27–28JAX
2020 · W15JAX @ BAL14–40BAL
2016 · W3BAL @ JAX19–17BAL
2015 · W10JAX @ BAL22–20JAX
2014 · W15JAX @ BAL12–20BAL
2011 · W7BAL @ JAX7–12JAX
2008 · W17JAX @ BAL7–27BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–JAX
BALQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:32968Field goal0–3
BALQ1 9:0538Punt0–3
JAXQ1 7:25780Touchdown0–10
BALQ1 3:323-8Punt0–10
JAXQ1 2:051049Field goal0–13
BALQ2 10:4934Punt0–13
JAXQ2 9:5335Punt0–13
BALQ2 8:1710Turnover0–13
JAXQ2 8:06828Touchdown0–20
BALQ2 4:5558Punt0–20
JAXQ2 2:531032Field goal0–23
BALQ2 0:3834Punt0–23
JAXQ2 0:1200End of half0–23
JAXQ3 15:00720Punt0–23
BALQ3 11:48311Turnover0–23
JAXQ3 10:25232Touchdown0–30
BALQ3 9:4249Turnover0–30
JAXQ3 8:1322Touchdown0–37
BALQ3 7:48737Punt0–37
JAXQ3 3:24781Touchdown0–44
BALQ4 14:561343Turnover on downs0–44
JAXQ4 9:3433Punt0–44
BALQ4 8:331071Touchdown7–44
JAXQ4 3:24313End of half7–44

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Mallett6/93610
Joe Flacco8/182802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins9829.10
Terrance West6264.30
Javorius Allen8151.90
Michael Campanaro177.00
Mike Wallace144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nick Boyle22140
Javorius Allen56130
Benjamin Watson33121
Jeremy Maclin1580
Chris Matthews1180
Mike Wallace1560
Michael Campanaro1230
Terrance West0100
Breshad Perriman0100
Chris Moore0100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles20/3124440
Chad Henne0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Grant67512.50
Leonard Fournette17593.51
Blake Bortles3186.00
Chris Ivory6172.80
Chad Henne3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marqise Lee47650
Marcedes Lewis45623
Chris Ivory22250
Leonard Fournette34210
Allen Hurns33201
Corey Grant11180
Keelan Cole14130
James O'Shaughnessy11120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

6.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.02