Closing spread
BAL -10
Total
38.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.173
- 41.6%Success rate36.3%
- +0.110EPA / dropback-0.210
- -0.057EPA / rush-0.127
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.6%
- -1.68CPOE-11.15
- 42.5%Third-down rate34.3%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.79Points / drive1.10
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 21/38 | 137 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 12 | 40 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 5 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| David Reed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LaQuan Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 9/20 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 30 | 105 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Hill | 4 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.20