2011 · Week 7

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

7·12

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blaine Gabbert

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

BAL -10

Total

38.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapJaguars
  • +0.041EPA / play-0.173
  • 41.6%Success rate36.3%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback-0.210
  • -0.057EPA / rush-0.127
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -1.68CPOE-11.15
  • 42.5%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.10
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. JAX are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15BAL @ JAX23–7BAL
2022 · W12BAL @ JAX27–28JAX
2020 · W15JAX @ BAL14–40BAL
2017 · W3BAL @ JAX7–44JAX
2016 · W3BAL @ JAX19–17BAL
2015 · W10JAX @ BAL22–20JAX
2014 · W15JAX @ BAL12–20BAL
2008 · W17JAX @ BAL7–27BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–JAX
BALQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
JAXQ1 14:0232Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:143-2Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:0839Punt0–0
BALQ1 8:5913Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 8:52632Turnover0–0
BALQ1 5:1036Punt0–0
JAXQ1 3:043-3Field goal0–3
BALQ1 1:4233Punt0–3
JAXQ1 0:1131Punt0–3
BALQ2 14:0333Punt0–3
JAXQ2 12:563-3Punt0–3
BALQ2 11:285-13Punt0–3
JAXQ2 8:38533Field goal0–6
BALQ2 5:5832Punt0–6
JAXQ2 4:5346Punt0–6
BALQ2 2:28310Punt0–6
JAXQ2 1:0028End of half0–6
JAXQ3 15:001757Field goal0–9
BALQ3 6:301041Missed field goal0–9
JAXQ3 1:37616Punt0–9
BALQ4 13:275-1Punt0–9
JAXQ4 10:31746Punt0–9
BALQ4 5:221390Touchdown7–9
JAXQ4 2:0234Field goal7–12
BALQ4 1:4320Turnover7–12
JAXQ4 1:2500End of half7–12

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco21/3813711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice8283.50
Ricky Williams351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin412401
Ray Rice58350
Torrey Smith35320
Ed Dickson45230
Dennis Pitta33130
David Reed0100
LaQuan Williams0200
Joe Flacco11-80

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blaine Gabbert9/209300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew301053.50
Deji Karim7284.00
Blaine Gabbert5-1-0.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Hill48620
Marcedes Lewis13130
Mike Sims-Walker12110
Mike Thomas1180
Cecil Shorts0200
Maurice Jones-Drew23-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.20