Closing spread
BAL -4
Total
47
Model margin
+1.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play-0.081
- 41.8%Success rate42.4%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.254EPA / rush-0.170
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.1%
- -3.08CPOE-0.66
- 33.9%Third-down rate37.0%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
- 1.59Points / drive1.48
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 22/45 | 188 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 5 | 9 | 62 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 11 | 51 | 1 |
| Bryan Walters | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 34/45 | 316 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamar Aiken | 7 | 14 | 73 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 4 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Maxx Williams | 4 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| Chris Givens | 4 | 7 | 37 | 1 |
| Nick Boyle | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Jeremy Butler | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.95