2015 · Week 10

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

22·20

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 60°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BAL -4

Total

47

Model margin

+1.9est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapRavens
  • -0.051EPA / play-0.081
  • 41.8%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.254EPA / rush-0.170
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -3.08CPOE-0.66
  • 33.9%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.48
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15BAL @ JAX23–7BAL
2022 · W12BAL @ JAX27–28JAX
2020 · W15JAX @ BAL14–40BAL
2017 · W3BAL @ JAX7–44JAX
2016 · W3BAL @ JAX19–17BAL
2014 · W15JAX @ BAL12–20BAL
2011 · W7BAL @ JAX7–12JAX
2008 · W17JAX @ BAL7–27BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–BAL
JAXQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:35425Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:1732Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:44833Turnover on downs0–0
JAXQ1 6:56955Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 2:2936Punt7–0
JAXQ1 0:4831Punt7–0
BALQ2 14:43422Punt7–0
JAXQ2 12:2410Turnover7–0
BALQ2 12:17226Touchdown7–7
JAXQ2 11:321560Field goal10–7
BALQ2 3:28780Touchdown10–14
JAXQ2 1:1130Punt10–14
BALQ2 0:47531Missed field goal10–14
BALQ3 15:0010Turnover10–14
JAXQ3 14:5130Field goal13–14
BALQ3 14:27839Turnover13–14
JAXQ3 10:3045Punt13–14
BALQ3 7:49514Turnover13–14
JAXQ3 5:05851Missed field goal13–14
BALQ3 1:2134Punt13–14
JAXQ4 15:003-5Punt13–14
JAXQ4 14:01522Touchdown19–14
BALQ4 13:011080Touchdown19–20
JAXQ4 7:30630Punt19–20
BALQ4 3:57737Punt19–20
JAXQ4 1:06736Field goal22–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles22/4518821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon18613.40
Blake Bortles22512.50
Marqise Lee133.00
Denard Robinson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns59621
Allen Robinson511511
Bryan Walters35290
Julius Thomas25230
Marcedes Lewis1290
Marqise Lee1580
T.J. Yeldon5660
Denard Robinson0200

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco34/4531632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett14533.80
Javorius Allen5193.80
Joe Flacco2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kamar Aiken714730
Crockett Gillmore44421
Maxx Williams44401
Chris Givens47371
Nick Boyle33350
Jeremy Butler11210
Justin Forsett44110
Marlon Brown1160
Javorius Allen1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.95