Closing spread
BAL -13
Total
49.5
Model margin
+8.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.109
- 42.0%Success rate45.2%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.125
- -0.086EPA / rush+0.093
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.40CPOE-0.32
- 40.6%Third-down rate49.8%
- 64.8%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
- 1.74Points / drive2.64
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 22/29 | 226 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 16 | 35 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 3 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Collin Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17/22 | 243 | 3 | 1 |
| Tyler Huntley | 2/4 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Tyler Huntley | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 6 | 7 | 98 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Patrick Ricard | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.9%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.81
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+8.44