2020 · Week 15

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew II

14·40

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -13

Total

49.5

Model margin

+8.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapRavens
  • -0.050EPA / play+0.109
  • 42.0%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.125
  • -0.086EPA / rush+0.093
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.40CPOE-0.32
  • 40.6%Third-down rate49.8%
  • 64.8%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
  • 1.74Points / drive2.64
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15BAL @ JAX23–7BAL
2022 · W12BAL @ JAX27–28JAX
2017 · W3BAL @ JAX7–44JAX
2016 · W3BAL @ JAX19–17BAL
2015 · W10JAX @ BAL22–20JAX
2014 · W15JAX @ BAL12–20BAL
2011 · W7BAL @ JAX7–12JAX
2008 · W17JAX @ BAL7–27BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–BAL
BALQ1 15:00639Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 11:422-1Safety0–2
BALQ1 10:57768Touchdown0–9
JAXQ1 6:35924Turnover on downs0–9
BALQ1 1:50649Touchdown0–16
JAXQ2 14:1469Punt0–16
BALQ2 10:4365Field goal0–19
JAXQ2 7:44828Turnover on downs0–19
BALQ2 3:16857Touchdown0–26
JAXQ2 1:2041Punt0–26
BALQ2 0:2626Missed field goal0–26
JAXQ3 15:001080Touchdown7–26
BALQ3 9:091075Touchdown7–33
JAXQ3 4:35866Turnover7–33
BALQ3 0:361073Touchdown7–40
JAXQ4 9:4649Punt7–40
BALQ4 7:59834Turnover on downs7–40
JAXQ4 3:56751Touchdown14–40
BALQ4 1:4415End of half14–40

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew22/2922620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson16352.20
Dare Ogunbowale2178.50
Gardner Minshew294.50
Laviska Shenault Jr.210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Chark45530
Tyler Eifert34510
Laviska Shenault Jr.56430
Keelan Cole22220
James Robinson33181
Chris Conley13131
Dare Ogunbowale1180
Collin Johnson1180
James O'Shaughnessy1160
Devine Ozigbo1140

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson17/2224331
Tyler Huntley2/4700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins14644.61
Gus Edwards9424.70
Lamar Jackson10353.51
Tyler Huntley4184.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown67980
Mark Andrews55661
Gus Edwards22360
J.K. Dobbins11170
Dez Bryant13111
Patrick Ricard23100
Justice Hill1180
Miles Boykin1241
Willie Snead0100
Eric Tomlinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.0%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.9%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+8.44