2014 · Week 15

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

12·20

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 47°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -14

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapRavens
  • -0.161EPA / play+0.069
  • 37.6%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.184EPA / dropback+0.149
  • -0.114EPA / rush-0.046
  • 7.9%Explosive rate10.6%
  • -7.00CPOE-0.77
  • 32.0%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 0.97Points / drive2.21
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15BAL @ JAX23–7BAL
2022 · W12BAL @ JAX27–28JAX
2020 · W15JAX @ BAL14–40BAL
2017 · W3BAL @ JAX7–44JAX
2016 · W3BAL @ JAX19–17BAL
2015 · W10JAX @ BAL22–20JAX
2011 · W7BAL @ JAX7–12JAX
2008 · W17JAX @ BAL7–27BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–BAL
JAXQ1 15:00728Opp touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 11:52636Field goal3–7
BALQ1 9:33422Punt3–7
JAXQ1 8:001162Field goal6–7
BALQ1 1:18521Turnover6–7
JAXQ2 13:343-2Field goal9–7
BALQ2 11:3300Missed field goal9–7
JAXQ2 11:33629Missed field goal9–7
BALQ2 9:05965Field goal9–10
JAXQ2 3:453-2Punt9–10
BALQ2 2:49830Missed field goal9–10
JAXQ2 0:40329Field goal12–10
BALQ2 0:0400End of half12–10
BALQ3 15:00412Punt12–10
JAXQ3 13:1437Punt12–10
BALQ3 11:53765Touchdown12–17
JAXQ3 8:34836Punt12–17
BALQ3 4:38619Punt12–17
JAXQ3 1:56624Punt12–17
BALQ4 13:33734Missed field goal12–17
JAXQ4 8:283-15Punt12–17
BALQ4 6:233-1Punt12–17
JAXQ4 5:13513Turnover on downs12–17
BALQ4 3:21749Field goal12–20
JAXQ4 1:1153Turnover12–20
BALQ4 0:1600End of half12–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles21/3721001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Toby Gerhart13544.20
Storm Johnson6193.20
Jordan Todman372.30
Blake Bortles122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts611760
Allen Hurns69700
Marcedes Lewis23220
Jordan Todman12190
Marqise Lee49140
Toby Gerhart2290
Tommy Streeter0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco20/3022110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett16483.00
Bernard Pierce6376.20
Joe Flacco482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marlon Brown55660
Owen Daniels49621
Steve Smith55370
Crockett Gillmore23370
Torrey Smith23160
Kamar Aiken0100
Bernard Pierce0100
Justin Forsett12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.49