Closing spread
BAL -14
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.161EPA / play+0.069
- 37.6%Success rate44.2%
- -0.184EPA / dropback+0.149
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.046
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.6%
- -7.00CPOE-0.77
- 32.0%Third-down rate41.5%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 0.97Points / drive2.21
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 21/37 | 210 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Gerhart | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Storm Johnson | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 6 | 11 | 76 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 6 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 4 | 9 | 14 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Tommy Streeter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/30 | 221 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Brown | 5 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 4 | 9 | 62 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.49