2001 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Daunte Culpepper

14·41

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

38.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.050EPA / play-0.025
  • 42.2%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.012EPA / dropback+0.010
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.085
  • 7.6%Explosive rate6.6%
  • 42.5%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate42.8%
  • 1.40Points / drive1.43
  • 3.7%Turnover rate1.8%
  • +0.044EPA / play allowed-0.085

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. TB are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3MIN @ TB23–16MIN
2023 · W1TB @ MIN20–17TB
2020 · W14MIN @ TB14–26TB
2017 · W3TB @ MIN17–34MIN
2014 · W8MIN @ TB19–13MIN
2012 · W8TB @ MIN36–17TB
2011 · W2TB @ MIN24–20TB
2008 · W11MIN @ TB13–19TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–TB
TBQ1 15:00617Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:2238Punt0–0
TBQ1 9:581675Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 1:3538Punt0–7
TBQ2 14:41966Touchdown0–14
MINQ2 9:0035Punt0–14
TBQ2 6:39655Touchdown0–21
MINQ2 3:34319Punt0–21
TBQ2 2:131184Touchdown0–28
MINQ2 0:1314End of half0–28
MINQ3 15:0030Punt0–28
TBQ3 14:093-1Field goal0–31
MINQ3 12:1821Turnover0–31
TBQ3 11:2837Field goal0–34
MINQ3 10:05780Touchdown8–34
TBQ3 6:28656Touchdown8–41
MINQ3 2:18931Turnover on downs8–41
TBQ4 14:02628Punt8–41
MINQ4 10:201154Touchdown14–41
TBQ4 5:5800Turnover on downs14–41
MINQ4 5:454-14Turnover on downs14–41
TBQ4 4:33562Turnover on downs14–41
MINQ4 0:351-1End of half14–41

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daunte Culpepper13/2415011
Todd Bouman1/2400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daunte Culpepper9495.40
Jimmy Kleinsasser284.00
Doug Chapman581.60
Travis Prentice111.01
Todd Bouman1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cris Carter48550
Randy Moss37491
Jake Reed33320
Doug Chapman22140
Jimmy Kleinsasser1240
Byron Chamberlain0100
Daunte Culpepper1100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson18/2521420
Shaun King2/36200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Stecker8303.80
Reidel Anthony11616.00
Brad Johnson133.00
Jameel Cook221.00
Shaun King3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Karl Williams46800
Keyshawn Johnson57620
Aaron Stecker22511
Dave Moore55271
Reidel Anthony24210
Frank Murphy11200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.8%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.79