2001 · Week 7 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.025
- 42.2%Success rate39.6%
- -0.012EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.6%
- 42.5%Third-down rate35.3%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate42.8%
- 1.40Points / drive1.43
- 3.7%Turnover rate1.8%
- +0.044EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. TB are 10-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 13/24 | 150 | 1 | 1 |
| Todd Bouman | 1/2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Todd Bouman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 4 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 3 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 18/25 | 214 | 2 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 2/3 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 4 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 2 | 51 | 1 |
| Dave Moore | 5 | 5 | 27 | 1 |
| Reidel Anthony | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Frank Murphy | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.79