2001 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

21·35

Commanders

Washington

QB Tony Banks

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 21mph

Closing spread

NYG -7.5

Total

33.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.048EPA / play-0.103
  • 40.3%Success rate38.9%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback-0.101
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.105
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 35.2%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
  • 1.21Points / drive1.18
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.053EPA / play allowed-0.069

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
NYGQ1 15:0020Turnover0–0
WASQ1 14:31317Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 13:18741Punt0–7
WASQ1 9:27313Punt0–7
NYGQ1 7:4741Opp touchdown0–14
WASQ1 6:0600Opp touchdown0–14
NYGQ1 6:06616Punt0–14
WASQ1 3:1238Punt0–14
NYGQ1 1:09520Punt0–14
WASQ2 14:0230Punt0–14
NYGQ2 12:34430Punt0–14
WASQ2 9:3434Punt0–14
NYGQ2 8:39843Touchdown7–14
WASQ2 6:393-4Punt7–14
NYGQ2 4:30539Touchdown14–14
WASQ2 3:04645Field goal14–17
WASQ3 15:00460Touchdown14–24
NYGQ3 13:08842Turnover on downs14–24
WASQ3 10:171252Field goal14–27
NYGQ3 3:231267Touchdown21–27
WASQ4 13:58737Punt21–27
NYGQ4 10:14726Punt21–27
WASQ4 7:34367Touchdown21–35
NYGQ4 6:41963Turnover21–35
WASQ4 4:08954End of half21–35

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins32/5234631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ron Dayne8192.40
Tiki Barber7142.00
Kerry Collins492.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amani Toomer9161091
Joe Jurevicius69770
Tiki Barber914740
Ike Hilliard26401
Greg Comella55291
Ron Dixon12170

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks11/1919020
Kevin Lockett1/13110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis291073.70
Ki-Jana Carter24020.00
Tony Banks4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Westbrook22831
Kevin Lockett34460
Zeron Flemister24320
Derrius Thompson12311
Rod Gardner24201
Stephen Davis2290
Ki-Jana Carter0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.53