2001 · Week 7 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 21mph
Closing spread
NYG -7.5
Total
33.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.048EPA / play-0.103
- 40.3%Success rate38.9%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.101
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.105
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- 35.2%Third-down rate34.9%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
- 1.21Points / drive1.18
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.053EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 32/52 | 346 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 9 | 16 | 109 | 1 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 6 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 9 | 14 | 74 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 2 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Greg Comella | 5 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 11/19 | 190 | 2 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1/1 | 31 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 29 | 107 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 2 | 40 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Westbrook | 2 | 2 | 83 | 1 |
| Kevin Lockett | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Derrius Thompson | 1 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Rod Gardner | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Stephen Davis | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.53