Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
36
Model margin
+5.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.011EPA / play+0.060
- 39.7%Success rate42.5%
- +0.112EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.0%Explosive rate11.5%
- 42.1%Third-down rate45.8%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.49Points / drive1.58
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 14/23 | 175 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Green | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 10 | 13 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 2 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 3 | 41 | 1 |
| Drew Bennett | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 2 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 13/22 | 232 | 1 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 1/1 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 19 | 62 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 36 | 36.0 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Kris Brown | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 6 | 8 | 151 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Bobby Shaw | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.39