2001 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

7·34

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

36

Model margin

+5.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapSteelers
  • -0.011EPA / play+0.060
  • 39.7%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback+0.159
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.039
  • 8.0%Explosive rate11.5%
  • 42.1%Third-down rate45.8%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.58
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.9%
  • +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.148

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–10 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. PIT are 12-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9TEN @ PIT16–20PIT
2021 · W15TEN @ PIT13–19PIT
2020 · W7PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2017 · W11TEN @ PIT17–40PIT
2014 · W11PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2013 · W1TEN @ PIT16–9TEN
2012 · W6PIT @ TEN23–26TEN
2011 · W5TEN @ PIT17–38PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–PIT
PITQ1 15:001268Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 8:3748Turnover0–7
PITQ1 6:2535Missed field goal0–7
TENQ1 4:581062Touchdown7–7
PITQ2 14:55740Punt7–7
TENQ2 11:0040Turnover7–7
PITQ2 9:24721Touchdown7–14
TENQ2 5:56629Missed field goal7–14
PITQ2 2:141039Field goal7–17
TENQ2 0:231-1End of half7–17
TENQ3 15:00515Punt7–17
PITQ3 11:51352Touchdown7–24
TENQ3 10:18615Punt7–24
PITQ3 7:191063Field goal7–27
TENQ3 1:4200Touchdown7–27
PITQ3 1:30429Touchdown7–34
TENQ4 14:5532Punt7–34
PITQ4 13:49627Punt7–34
TENQ4 10:213-10Punt7–34
PITQ4 9:0539Punt7–34
TENQ4 6:501094Turnover7–34
PITQ4 2:45552End of half7–34

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair14/2317512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Green5275.40
Eddie George10131.30
Skip Hicks3113.70
Steve McNair661.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason23560
Frank Wycheck33411
Drew Bennett22290
Kevin Dyson28220
Eddie George22140
Mike Green2370
Erron Kinney1260

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart13/2223210
Tommy Maddox1/15700
Hines Ward0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis19623.32
Hines Ward13636.00
Amos Zereoue7172.40
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala393.00
Kordell Stewart482.01
Kris Brown166.00
Tommy Maddox3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Plaxico Burress681510
Troy Edwards13570
Mark Bruener34360
Hines Ward25201
Bobby Shaw11190
Jerome Bettis0100
Jerame Tuman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.4%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.39