2001 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Randall Cunningham

13·10

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

PIT -2

Total

33

Model margin

+1.5est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • -0.088EPA / play+0.060
  • 39.6%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.159
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.039
  • 8.5%Explosive rate11.5%
  • 36.2%Third-down rate45.8%
  • 45.6%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.58
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.148

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
BALQ1 15:00828Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:33417Punt0–0
BALQ1 8:2233Punt0–0
PITQ1 7:221062Field goal0–3
BALQ1 1:45442Touchdown7–3
PITQ2 14:56740Missed field goal7–3
BALQ2 10:5439Punt7–3
PITQ2 9:4438Punt7–3
BALQ2 8:093-1Punt7–3
PITQ2 7:1138Punt7–3
BALQ2 6:08419Punt7–3
PITQ2 3:35420Punt7–3
BALQ2 1:483-7Punt7–3
PITQ2 0:35432Touchdown7–10
BALQ2 0:151-1End of half7–10
PITQ3 15:001462Missed field goal7–10
BALQ3 7:093-1Turnover7–10
PITQ3 6:2333Turnover7–10
BALQ3 4:53943Field goal10–10
PITQ4 14:57422Punt10–10
BALQ4 12:26510Punt10–10
PITQ4 9:45929Missed field goal10–10
BALQ4 4:22640Field goal13–10
PITQ4 1:49945Missed field goal13–10
BALQ4 0:081-1End of half13–10

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Randall Cunningham14/2215811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jason Brookins16402.50
Obafemi Ayanbadejo520.40
Brandon Stokley111.00
Randall Cunningham4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shannon Sharpe35561
Qadry Ismail57530
Obafemi Ayanbadejo44270
Travis Taylor24220
Brandon Stokley0100
Jason Brookins0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart22/3723610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis23914.00
Kordell Stewart8313.90
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala331.00
Troy Edwards1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward911970
Plaxico Burress47561
Bobby Shaw38370
Mark Bruener12180
Troy Edwards13100
Jerome Bettis1180
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala2380

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.65
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.50