Closing spread
PIT -2
Total
33
Model margin
+1.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play+0.060
- 39.6%Success rate42.5%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.5%Explosive rate11.5%
- 36.2%Third-down rate45.8%
- 45.6%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.28Points / drive1.58
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cunningham | 14/22 | 158 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Brookins | 16 | 40 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 3 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Qadry Ismail | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Brookins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 22/37 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 23 | 91 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 9 | 11 | 97 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 4 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Bobby Shaw | 3 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.65
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.50