2001 · Week 8 · Division

Final / OT

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Clint Stoerner

24·27

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYG -10.5

Total

35.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • -0.125EPA / play-0.048
  • 36.1%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.132EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.113
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.8%
  • 32.7%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 32.6%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 0.93Points / drive1.21
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.034EPA / play allowed-0.053

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
DALQ1 15:00624Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:2634Punt0–0
DALQ1 9:04860Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 3:1558Turnover3–0
DALQ1 1:06215Touchdown10–0
NYGQ1 0:1938Opp touchdown17–0
DALQ2 14:3200Opp touchdown17–0
NYGQ2 14:323-2Punt17–0
DALQ2 12:2038Punt17–0
NYGQ2 10:1538Punt17–0
DALQ2 8:11652Missed field goal17–0
NYGQ2 5:11463Touchdown17–7
DALQ2 3:223-7Punt17–7
NYGQ2 1:54631Opp touchdown24–7
DALQ2 0:3900Opp touchdown24–7
NYGQ2 0:3900Turnover24–7
DALQ2 0:30311Turnover24–7
NYGQ3 15:00418Punt24–7
DALQ3 12:45837Turnover24–7
NYGQ3 8:42680Touchdown24–14
DALQ3 5:45631Turnover24–14
NYGQ3 1:5130Punt24–14
DALQ3 1:2035Turnover24–14
NYGQ4 14:47628Field goal24–17
DALQ4 10:4132Punt24–17
NYGQ4 8:59214Touchdown24–24
DALQ4 8:19514Turnover24–24
NYGQ4 6:36515Turnover24–24
DALQ4 4:23849Punt24–24
NYGQ4 0:52522Missed field goal24–24
DALOT523Punt24–24
NYGOT761Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Clint Stoerner13/2317714
Ryan Leaf4/88500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Troy Hambrick30772.60
Michael Wiley155.00
Clint Stoerner144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Raghib Ismail681070
Joey Galloway410731
Jackie Harris23490
Mike Lucky22180
Michael Wiley1390
J.J. Huggins1250
Troy Hambrick1110
Darrin Chiaverini0200

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins24/3428032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ron Dayne17523.10
Tiki Barber7304.30
Kerry Collins2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amani Toomer37690
Ike Hilliard79631
Tiki Barber810600
Joe Jurevicius34502
Ron Dayne22300
Greg Comella1180
Dan Campbell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.57.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.68
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.59