Closing spread
NYG -10.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.125EPA / play-0.048
- 36.1%Success rate40.3%
- -0.132EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.113
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.8%
- 32.7%Third-down rate35.2%
- 32.6%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 0.93Points / drive1.21
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.034EPA / play allowed-0.053
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clint Stoerner | 13/23 | 177 | 1 | 4 |
| Ryan Leaf | 4/8 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 30 | 77 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Clint Stoerner | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 6 | 8 | 107 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 4 | 10 | 73 | 1 |
| Jackie Harris | 2 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| J.J. Huggins | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 24/34 | 280 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 17 | 52 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 3 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 7 | 9 | 63 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 8 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 3 | 4 | 50 | 2 |
| Ron Dayne | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.68
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.59