Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.282EPA / play-0.011
- 40.8%Success rate39.7%
- -0.233EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.375EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- 34.6%Third-down rate42.1%
- 26.3%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 0.28Points / drive1.49
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 21/32 | 261 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Joseph | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Frank Moreau | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Alvis Whitted | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 7 | 11 | 120 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 5 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Elvis Joseph | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 2 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Damon Gibson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 27/34 | 241 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 10 | 74 | 7.4 | 2 |
| Eddie George | 22 | 70 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Dyson | 4 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 6 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 6 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 6 | 8 | 35 | 1 |
| Shad Meier | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Wes Ours | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.07