Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.062
- 41.5%Success rate39.3%
- +0.059EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.193
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- 41.6%Third-down rate40.9%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate42.1%
- 1.32Points / drive1.45
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed+0.060
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–0 since 1999
NE have won 8 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. ATL are 1-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/31 | 250 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 23 | 117 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 5 | 6 | 99 | 1 |
| David Patten | 3 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Curtis Jackson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 8/20 | 95 | 1 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 2/9 | 56 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Smith | 16 | 84 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 2 | 50 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 4 | 19 | 1 |
| Reggie Kelly | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 1 | 6 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.72