2001 · Week 8

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

24·10

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Chris Chandler

Georgia Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.017EPA / play-0.062
  • 41.5%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.059EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.193
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 41.6%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate42.1%
  • 1.32Points / drive1.45
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.079EPA / play allowed+0.060

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–0 since 1999

NE have won 8 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. ATL are 1-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9ATL @ NE23–24NE
2021 · W11NE @ ATL25–0NE
2017 · W7ATL @ NE7–23NE
2016 · playoffsNE @ ATL34–28NE
2013 · W4NE @ ATL30–23NE
2009 · W3ATL @ NE10–26NE
2005 · W5NE @ ATL31–28NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–ATL
NEQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:323-1Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:35848Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 8:273-1Punt0–0
NEQ1 7:053-1Punt0–0
ATLQ1 5:38799Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 2:351675Touchdown7–7
ATLQ2 9:0020Turnover7–7
NEQ2 7:58526Field goal10–7
ATLQ2 4:263-6Punt10–7
NEQ2 2:561084Touchdown17–7
ATLQ2 0:15119Missed field goal17–7
ATLQ3 15:0059Punt17–7
NEQ3 11:4939Punt17–7
ATLQ3 10:02824Missed field goal17–7
NEQ3 6:5635Punt17–7
ATLQ3 5:555-7Punt17–7
NEQ3 4:3610Turnover17–7
ATLQ3 4:3037Punt17–7
NEQ3 2:26480Touchdown24–7
ATLQ3 0:34660Field goal24–10
NEQ4 11:2847Punt24–10
ATLQ4 8:49643Turnover on downs24–10
NEQ4 6:4333Punt24–10
ATLQ4 5:327-2Turnover on downs24–10
NEQ4 4:11835End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady21/3125030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith231175.10
Troy Brown155.00
Kevin Faulk122.00
Tom Brady300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Brown56991
David Patten39400
Antowain Smith33280
Kevin Faulk55211
Jermaine Wiggins11160
Curtis Jackson11120
Charles Johnson1270
Patrick Pass0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Chandler8/209511
Mike Vick2/95600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Smith16845.30
Mike Vick25025.00
Chris Chandler166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Finneran15500
Tony Martin35490
Alge Crumpler22200
Shawn Jefferson14191
Reggie Kelly0300
Maurice Smith0100
Terance Mathis16-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-0.72