Closing spread
NE -7
Total
47.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.070EPA / play-0.076
- 48.6%Success rate41.2%
- +0.133EPA / dropback-0.028
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.162
- 11.1%Explosive rate8.2%
- +2.93CPOE+0.85
- 45.5%Third-down rate38.5%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 2.41Points / drive1.58
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–0 since 1999
NE have won 8 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. ATL are 1-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 22/26 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 6 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/28 | 153 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Rosen | 1/3 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Feleipe Franks | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadree Ollison | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Gage | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.00