Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.020
- 44.6%Success rate40.6%
- +0.186EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.024
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.3%
- 42.3%Third-down rate43.8%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.91Points / drive1.65
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.034EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–0 since 1999
NE have won 8 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. ATL are 1-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:30 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 10:14 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 8:56 | 7 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q1 5:05 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 3:28 | 5 | 73 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| ATL | Q1 1:03 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| NE | Q2 13:24 | 8 | 42 | Punt | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q2 9:13 | 16 | 81 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| NE | Q2 1:25 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 14–10 |
| ATL | Q2 0:45 | 4 | 35 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| NE | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–13 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 78 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| ATL | Q3 13:59 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 21–13 |
| NE | Q3 13:07 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–13 |
| ATL | Q3 11:02 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–13 |
| NE | Q3 8:59 | 5 | 79 | Touchdown | 28–13 |
| ATL | Q3 5:50 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 28–13 |
| NE | Q3 4:11 | 7 | 29 | Turnover | 28–13 |
| ATL | Q3 0:35 | 3 | 53 | Touchdown | 28–20 |
| NE | Q4 14:23 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 28–20 |
| ATL | Q4 10:27 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 28–20 |
| NE | Q4 7:43 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 28–20 |
| ATL | Q4 6:04 | 8 | 62 | Touchdown | 28–28 |
| NE | Q4 3:52 | 10 | 33 | Field goal | 31–28 |
| ATL | Q4 0:17 | 1 | 21 | End of half | 31–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/27 | 350 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 23 | 106 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 18/34 | 298 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 19 | 83 | 4.4 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.25
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.50