Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.020
- 44.6%Success rate40.6%
- +0.186EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.024
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.3%
- 42.3%Third-down rate43.8%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.91Points / drive1.65
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.034EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–0 since 1999
NE have won 8 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. ATL are 1-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/27 | 350 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 23 | 106 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 18/34 | 298 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 19 | 83 | 4.4 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.25
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.50