Closing spread
NE -4.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.118
- 43.4%Success rate49.1%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.223
- -0.036EPA / rush-0.033
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.75CPOE+3.43
- 42.8%Third-down rate44.2%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.97Points / drive2.12
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–0 since 1999
NE have won 8 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. NE are 7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 17/28 | 199 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jenkins | 5 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/42 | 277 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 21 | 105 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 10 | 16 | 116 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 2 | 3 | 42 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Sam Aiken | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.76
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.25