2009 · Week 3

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

10·26

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

NE -4.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.041EPA / play+0.118
  • 43.4%Success rate49.1%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.223
  • -0.036EPA / rush-0.033
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.75CPOE+3.43
  • 42.8%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.12
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 8–0 since 1999

NE have won 8 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. NE are 7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9ATL @ NE23–24NE
2021 · W11NE @ ATL25–0NE
2017 · W7ATL @ NE7–23NE
2016 · playoffsNE @ ATL34–28NE
2013 · W4NE @ ATL30–23NE
2005 · W5NE @ ATL31–28NE
2001 · W8NE @ ATL24–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NE
ATLQ1 15:001172Field goal3–0
NEQ1 9:211671Field goal3–3
ATLQ1 0:4233Punt3–3
NEQ2 14:10651Touchdown3–10
ATLQ2 11:41859Touchdown10–10
NEQ2 8:4334Punt10–10
ATLQ2 7:17746Turnover10–10
NEQ2 3:561253Field goal10–13
ATLQ2 0:2000End of half10–13
NEQ3 15:001279Field goal10–16
ATLQ3 9:01646Punt10–16
NEQ3 6:541570Field goal10–19
ATLQ4 14:55419Punt10–19
NEQ4 13:0735Punt10–19
ATLQ4 12:2637Punt10–19
NEQ4 10:55763Touchdown10–26
ATLQ4 7:4736Punt10–26
NEQ4 6:52951End of half10–26

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan17/2819900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner15563.71
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Jenkins58780
Roddy White46240
Brian Finneran23230
Marty Booker25170
Tony Gonzalez12160

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/4227710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor211055.01
Kevin Faulk5255.00
Laurence Maroney4174.30
Sammy Morris5163.20
Julian Edelman155.00
Tom Brady300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss10161160
Sammy Morris33460
Chris Baker23421
Benjamin Watson13230
Julian Edelman35200
Joey Galloway25140
Kevin Faulk34120
Fred Taylor1140
Sam Aiken0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.8%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.25